Market Roundup
• US Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb): -92K, 58K forecast, 126K previous
• US Unemployment Rate (Feb): 4.4%, 4.3% forecast, 4.3% previous
• US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Feb): 0.4%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
• US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan): -0.2%, -0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous
• US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan): 0.0%, 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
• US Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb): -86K, 65K forecast, 146K previous
• US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Feb): 3.8%, 3.7% forecast, 3.7% previous
• US U6 Unemployment Rate (Feb): 7.9%, 8.1% previous
• US Participation Rate (Feb): 62.0%, 62.1% previous
• US Retail Control (MoM) (Jan): 0.3%, 0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
• US Average Weekly Hours (Feb): 34.3, 34.3 forecast, 34.3 previous
• US Government Payrolls (Feb): -6.0K, -20.0K previous
• US Manufacturing Payrolls (Feb): -12K, 3K forecast, 5K previous
• US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Jan): 0.3%, 0.0% forecast, 0.1% previous
• US Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan): 3.16%, 2.43% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro rose on Friday as the U.S. dollar weakened amid volatile trading following data showing an unexpected drop in new jobs in the United States. The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost jobs in February, while the unemployment rate climbed to 4.4%, signaling potential softening in labor market conditions and increasing challenges for the Federal Reserve, especially as oil prices continue to rise.Nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 jobs last month, following a downward revision of January’s figure to a 126,000 gain, according to the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists had expected payrolls to increase by 59,000 jobs after an earlier reported gain of 130,000 in January.Following the payroll data release, U.S. rate futures reflected a 50-50 probability that the Federal Reserve would restart interest rate cuts in June, coinciding with the expected start of new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s tenure. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1688(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1739(Oct 16th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1589(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1476(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound rebounded on Friday as the U.S. dollar weakened following unexpected job losses in February, which raised expectations that the Federal Reserve may consider interest rate cuts. The U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs last month, after a downward revision showed a 126,000 gain in January, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Economists had expected payrolls to increase by 59,000 jobs, following a previously reported 130,000 gain in January.The weaker-than-expected payroll report increased concerns that the U.S. economy may be slowing at a time when rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are driving up energy prices. This combination could limit the Federal Reserve’s policy flexibility, making rate cuts more complex while also raising the risk of renewed inflation pressures. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3403(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3459(Jan 2nd low).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3248(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3183(Dec 2nd low).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar climbed to a three-week high against the U.S. dollar on Friday as oil prices surged and U.S. employment data came in weaker than expected. The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost jobs in February, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, suggesting potential softening in labor market conditions that could complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions amid rising oil prices.Domestic economic data from Canada was positive. The seasonally adjusted Ivey Purchasing Managers Index rose to 56.6 last month from 50.9 in January, marking its highest level since September.Oil prices also jumped sharply, settling 12.2% higher at $90.90 per barrel, as the ongoing conflict disrupted shipping and energy exports through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.The loonie was trading 0.7% higher at 1.3578 per U.S. dollar, its strongest level since February 12.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3637(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3679(Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3550(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3475(23.6%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar retreated against yen on Friday after U.S. employment data fell short of expectations. The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost jobs in February and the unemployment rate increased to 4.4%, potentially hinting at a deterioration in labor market conditions that could put the Federal Reserve in a difficult spot amid rising oil prices.Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 92,000 jobs last month after a downwardly revised 126,000 increase in January, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Economists polled had forecast payrolls advancing by 59,000 jobs after increasing by a previously reported 130,000 in January.The decline in nonfarm payrolls reported by the Labor Department in its closely watched employment report on Friday was the sixth since January 2025 and the second largest. Part of the drop in employment last month reflected a strike by healthcare workers and a winter storm that weighed on construction as well as leisure and hospitality payrolls.Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.29(Higher BB) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.72(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.44 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
Europe’s STOXX 600 posted its biggest weekly drop in nearly a year on Friday as the Middle East conflict showed no signs of easing, while weak U.S. jobs data clouded the interest rate outlook.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 1.24 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.94 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.65 percent.
Wall Street’s three major indexes closed lower on Friday amid a sudden weakening in the U.S. labor market and a 12% jump in U.S. oil prices driven by the escalating Middle East conflict.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.95 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.33 percent, Nasdaq settled down by 1.59 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Friday after weaker U.S. payrolls data supported hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts, but still headed for a weekly loss as a stronger U.S. dollar limited gains.
Spot gold was up 1.4%at $5,149.14 per ounce as of 01:31 p.m. ET (1831 GMT), but was down 2.4%this week. U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled 1.6% higherat $5,158.70.
U.S. crude oil futures surged more than 12% as supply concerns grew due to the Strait of Hormuz closure amid the expanding U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran.
Brent crude futures settled at $92.69 a barrel, up $7.28, or 8.52%. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) finished at $90.90 a barrel, up $9.89, or 12.21%.
