Market Roundup
•US May Retail Control (MoM) 0.4%, -0.3% previous
•US May Retail Sales (MoM) 0.1%,0.3%forecast,0.0% previous
•US May Core Retail Sales (MoM) -0.1%,0.2% forecast,0.2% previous
•US May Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 0.1%,-0.1% previous
•US May Manufacturing Production (MoM) 0.9%,0.3% forecast,-0.3% previous
•US May Industrial Production (YoY) 0.39%,-0.38% previous
•US May Capacity Utilization Rate 78.7%, 78.6% forecast,78.4% previous
•US May Industrial Production (MoM) 0.9% , 0.3% forecast,0.0% previous
•US Apr Business Inventories (MoM) 0.3%,0.3% forecast,-0.1% previous
•US Apr Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.3%,0.3% forecast,-0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•23:30 Japan May Trade Balance -1,300.0B forecast,-465.5B previous
•23:30 Japan May Imports (YoY) 13.0% forecast,8.3% previous
•23:30 Japan May Exports (YoY) 10.4% forecast, 8.3% previous
•23:30 Japan Adjusted Trade Balance -0.64T forecast,-0.56T previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•23:30 Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar Tuesday after a softer-than-expected report on consumer spending. Retail sales rose 0.1% last month after a downwardly revised 0.2% drop in April, the U.S. Commerce Department said. The result was below expectations of economists polled by Reuters for a gain of 0.3%, and indicated economic activity was slowing as higher interest rates affect consumer spending patterns. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut rates at its September meeting crept higher, pricing in a 67.7% chance for a cut of at least 25 basis points, up from 61.5% on Monday. The euro was 0.02% higher at $1.073625. The common currency slipped as low as $1.071 earlier in the session. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0743(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0822(23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0689 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0615(61.8% fib).
GBP/USD: The pound held around a one-month low against the dollar on Tuesday as investors waited for inflation figures on Wednesday and the Bank of England's interest rate decision the day after that. The BoE's monetary policy committee (MPC) is widely expected to leave interest rates at 5.25% on Thursday, though investors will scrutinise the accompanying statement for any hints about when borrowing costs might fall.Consumer price index (CPI) data due on Wednesday is expected to show Britain's inflation rate fell back to the BoE's 2% target in May, from 2.3% in April.Sterling was up 0 at $1.2708 as the dollar dipped against most currencies . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2754(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2808(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2676(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2602(50% fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as investors weighed softer-than-expected U.S. retail sales data and awaited potential clues on prospects of additional interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada. Data on Friday showed that speculators have raised their bearish bets on the currency to a record high level.The price of oil , one of Canada's major exports, settled 1.5% higher at $81.57 a barrel, extending its recent gains. The loonie was trading nearly unchanged at 1.3720 to the U.S. dollar, after trading in a range of 1.3710 to 1.3756. The currency has been in a holding pattern since touching last Tuesday a near two-month low at 1.3791. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3743 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3805 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3690(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3635(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar gained against yen on Tuesday as investors digested Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo comments. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank could raise interest rates next month depending on economic data available at the time, underscoring its resolve to steadily push up borrowing costs from current near-zero levels. A weak yen complicates the BOJ's policy path. While it accelerates inflation by pushing up imported goods prices, the subsequent rise in living costs has weighed on consumption and cast doubt on the strength of Japan's economy.Many economists expect the BOJ to hike interest rates to 0.25% this year, though they are divided on whether it will come in July or later in the year.The dollar rose 0.26% to 158.13 yen , moving back towards Friday's six-week high of 158.26. Strong resistance can be seen at 158.43(23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.08(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.46(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 154.98 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares closed higher on Tuesday, supported by a slip in government bond yields as investor concern over French political woes ebbed, with the focus shifting to data and policymakers' comments to gauge global central banks' monetary policy path.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.60 percent, Germany's Dax closed up by 0.31 percent, France’s CAC closed up by 0.76 percent.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs on Tuesday, buoyed by Nvidia's continued surge to new peaks, while the Dow ended barely higher in subdued pre-holiday trading following softer-than-expected U.S. retail sales data.
Dow Jones was up by 0.15%percent, S&P 500 was up by 0.25% percent, Nasdaq was up by 0.02% percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil settled more than 1% higher on Tuesday due to escalating geopolitical risk in Europe and the Middle East, where wars continue to threaten global supply.
Brent crude futures settled up $1.08, or 1.3%, at $85.33 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures ended $1.24, or 1.5%, higher at $81.57 a barrel.
