Market Roundup
• HCOB Italy Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 50.6, 50.1 forecast, 49.9 previous
•HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 47.8, 47.8 forecast, 48.8 previous
•HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 48.2, 48.4 forecast, 49.6 previous
•S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 52.7, , 53.5 previous
• HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 49.6, 49.7 forecast, 50.0 previous
•UK M4 Money Supply (MoM) (Oct) -0.2%, 0.4% forecast, 0.6% previous
•UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 50.2, 50.2 forecast, 50.2 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•14:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction2.078% previous
•14:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.041% previous
•14:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.053% previous
•14:30 Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 49.6 previous
•14:45 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 51.9 forecast, 52.5 previous
•15:00 US Construction Spending (MoM) (Sep) 0.2% previous
•15:00 US ISM Manufacturing Employment (Nov) 46.0 previous
•15:00 US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Nov) 49.4 previous
•15:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 49.0 forecast, 48.7 previous
•15:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Nov) 59.5 forecast, 58.0 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Data Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro rose higher on Monday as dollar dipped investors braced for a pivotal month that could bring the Fed's final rate cut of the year and the confirmation of a dovish successor to Chair Jerome Powell.The sharp repricing of Fed easing expectations and a report that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett has emerged as the frontrunner to be the next Fed chair have dragged on the dollar, which on Friday clocked its worst week in four months. On the data front, Euro zone manufacturing activity slipped back into contraction territory in November on weakening demand that forced firms to cut jobs at the quickest rate in seven months, a private survey showed.The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, fell to 49.6 in November from 50.0 in October, marking a five-month low and slightly below a preliminary estimate of 49.7. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1644(61.8%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1675(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1594(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1567(SMA 20).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower against the dollar on Monday as investors took some profits on November's modest gains ahead of a widely expected interest rate cut later this month.Sterling gained more than 1% last week, marking its largest weekly gain since early August, lifted by a relief rally after finance minister Rachel Reeves' long-awaited budget soothed some concern about Britain's long-term finances.On the data front, the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index for Britain's manufacturing sector rose to 50.2 in November from 49.7 in October, in line with an initial 'flash' reading that painted a weaker picture of the rest of the private sector. The pound was last down 0.13% against the dollar at $1.3226.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3253(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3273(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3122(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3051(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened on Monday as dollar dipped as investors braced for a pivotal month that could bring the Fed's final rate cut of the year and the confirmation of a dovish successor to Chair Jerome Powell. Investors assuming a December cut is close to a done deal, alongside a report that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett could be the next Fed chair, the dollar is struggling, having clocked its worst weekly performance against a basket of major currencies in four months last week.Traders are now pricing in an 87% chance the Fed will cut by 25 basis points when it meets next week, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6580(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6588 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6536(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6510(50%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped lower against the yen on Monday as the yen strengthened after the BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated the possibility of a near-term rate hike.Ueda was sanguine on the economic impact of U.S. tariffs, saying corporate profit remained elevated and uncertainty surrounding the outlook for domestic growth was diminishing.Ueda noted that even with another hike, real rates would remain deeply negative, meaning borrowing costs would stay low and policy would simply ease pressure rather than tighten sharply.He said the bank must time its policy rate increase carefully neither too late nor too early to ensure inflation reaches its 2% target smoothly.Bank of Japan ended its massive, decade-long stimulus program last year and lifted its policy rate to 0.5% in January, citing confidence that inflation was nearing its sustainable 2% target. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.22(SMA 20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.77 (38.2%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 15419 (50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 153.60 (14 Nov low)
Equities Recap
European equities pulled back on Monday, reversing some recent gains, with the yen and Japanese government bond yields climbing after comments pointed to possible rate increases.
At (GMT 12:38),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.18 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.22 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.60 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold surged to a six-week high on Monday amid expectations of a U.S. rate cut and changes in Federal Reserve leadership, while silver reached a record level.
Spot gold was up 0.6%at $4,255.04 per ounce, as of 1054GMT, its highest since October 21. U.S. gold futures for February delivery gained 0.8%to $4,290.40.
Oil prices gained 1% on Monday as the Caspian Pipeline Consortium halted exports following a major drone attack, and U.S.-Venezuela tensions raised supply concerns, while OPEC+ decided to keep output steady through Q1 2026.
Brent crude futures advanced 71 cents, or 1.14%, to $63.09 a barrel by 1143 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 68 cents, or 1.16%, to $59.23.
