Market Roundup
• Japan Jobs-to-Applicants Ratio (Oct): 1.18, 1.20 forecast, 1.20 previous.
• Japan Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Nov): 2.8%, 2.7% forecast, 2.8% previous.
• Japan Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Nov): 2.7%, 2.7% forecast, 2.8% previous.
• Japan CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy (MoM) (Nov): 0.1%, 0.9% previous.
• Japan Unemployment Rate (Oct): 2.6%, 2.5% forecast, 2.6% previous.
• Japan Foreign Bonds Buying: 576.5B, 354.2B previous.
• Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks: -348.7B, 1,021.0B previous.
• Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct): 1.4%, -0.5% forecast, 2.6% previous.
• Japan Industrial Production Forecast 1M Ahead (MoM) (Nov): -1.2% , 1.9% previous.
• Japan Industrial Production Forecast 2M Ahead (MoM) (Dec): -2.0%, -0.9% previous.
• Japan Large Retailers' Sales (MoM) (Oct): 1.6%, 0.0% previous.
• Japan Large Scale Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct): 5.0%, 3.0% previous.
• Japan Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct): 1.7%, 0.8% forecast, 0.2% previous.
• Australia Credit (Oct) 0.6%, 0.6% previous.
• Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Oct) 0.7%, 0.6% forecast, 0.6% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•07:00 German Import Price Index (MoM) (Oct) 0.0% forecast,0.2% previous
•07:00 German Import Price Index (YoY) (Oct) -1.6% forecast,-1.0% previous
•07:00 German Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 0.1%forecast0.2% previous
•07:00 German Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct) 0.2% previous
•07:45 French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Oct): 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous.
•07:45 French CPI (MoM) (Nov):, 0.0% forecast, 0.1% previous.
•07:45 French CPI (YoY) (Nov):, 1.0% forecast, 0.9% previous.
•07:45 French GDP (QoQ) (Q3):, 0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous.
•07:45 French GDP (YoY) (Q3):, 0.9% forecast, 0.7% previous.
•07:45 French HICP (MoM) (Nov): 0.1% previous.
•07:45 French HICP (YoY) (Nov): 0.1% forecast, 0.8% previous.
•07:45 French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q3): -0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•09:00 Swiss GDP (QoQ) (Q3): -0.4% forecast, 0.1% previous.
•09:00 Swiss GDP (YoY) (Q3): 1.2% previous.
•09:00 German Unemployment Change (Nov): 4K forecast, -1K previous.
•09:00 German Unemployment Rate (Nov): 6.3% forecast, 6.3% previous.
•09:00 German Unemployment (Nov): 2.973M previous.
•09:00 German Unemployment n.s.a. (Nov): 2.910M previous.
•09:00 German Core CPI (YoY) (Nov): 2.6% previous.
•09:00 German Core CPI (MoM) (Nov): 0.4% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other releases (GMT)
•10:00 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Friday as investor focus shifted to key inflation data from Germany. Germany’s flash inflation reading is set to take centre stage, alongside Retail Sales figures and the European Central Bank Consumer Inflation Expectations survey. In addition, an ECB policymaker is due to speak later in the day. Meanwhile,Minutes from the European Central Bank's latest meeting on Thursday showed policymakers there were not in a rush to cut rates either. On the geopolitical front, Ukraine’s president said on Thursday that Ukrainian and U.S. delegations will meet this week to finalise a framework discussed in Geneva aimed at ending the war with Russia and securing guarantees for Kyiv. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1600(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.16818(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1558(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1524(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower against the dollar on Friday as investors assessed whether the fiscal tightening measures announced in Wednesday’s budget will ultimately be implemented. After unveiling plans for an additional £26 billion ($34 billion) in tax increases on top of the £40 billion announced in her first budget last year, Chancellor Rachel Reeves faced scrutiny over her decision to lift restrictions on child benefits for low-income families with more than two children. Overnight budget assessments showed that higher public spending will take effect quickly, while much of the tax burden will be deferred into future years. The developments have also fuelled skepticism over whether the ruling administration will adhere to higher taxes as the next election approaches.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3253(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3273(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3122(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3051(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased slightly on Friday as investors weighed growing market bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate-easing cycle is nearing its end. A hotter-than-expected inflation reading has effectively sealed the case that the RBA’s current easing phase is over after three rate cuts, with some economists now predicting the next move could be a hike rather than another cut. Data released on Friday showed Australia’s private credit rose 0.7% in October from the previous month, picking up from September’s 0.6%, suggesting financial conditions may not be as restrictive as previously thought. Rates markets imply little chance of another RBA rate cut next year, while showing a divided outlook on a possible hike toward the end of 2026. Swaps currently price in just a 15% probability of another cut in 2026, while assigning a 30% chance of a rate hike by late 2026. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6514(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6523 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6424(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6447(Lower BB)
USD/JPYThe U.S. dollar edged higher against the yen on Friday as Japan’s fiscal concerns overshadowed upbeat economic data. Investor confidence has been dented by the country’s worsening fiscal position following the rollout of a massive stimulus package. Data showed Tokyo’s core inflation remained well above the central bank’s 2% target in November, as firms continued to pass on higher food-related costs, strengthening the case for a near-term rate hike. Tokyo’s core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food, rose 2.8% year-on-year in November, unchanged from October and broadly in line with the median forecast of a 2.7% increase. Separate October data showed retail sales and factory output both rose, while the unemployment rate stayed steady at 2.6%, suggesting the world’s fourth-largest economy is, for now, weathering the impact of higher U.S. tariffs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.83(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.63 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.08 (SMA 20)
Equities Recap
Asian shares are set to end a tough November on steadier ground as revived hopes of an imminent U.S. rate cut helped soothe valuation jitters and sent Treasuries rallying for a fourth straight month.
China A50 fell 0.11% and South Korea's Kospi was down 1.63%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was down 0.35%.
Commodities Recap
Brent crude oil futures were little changed on Friday as investors eyed the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks and the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday for clues on potential changes in supply which has been weighing on prices.
Front month Brent crude futures, which expire on Friday, was unchanged at $63.34 a barrel by 0134 GMT in thin trade after settling up 21 cents on Thursday. The more-active February contract was at $62.85, down 2 cents.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $59.00 a barrel, up 35 cents, or 0.60%.
Gold prices rose to a two-week high in early Asian trade on Friday, as bets increased for a U.S. interest rate cut next month amid conflicting signals from Federal Reserve officials.
Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,180.89 per ounce by 0100 GMT, hitting its highest level since November 14, and was set for a 3% weekly gain. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were up 0.3% at $4,215.80 per ounce.
