Market Roundup
• France 12-Month BTF Auction 2.613% ,2.670% previous
• France 3-Month BTF Auction 2.234%, 2.219% previous
• France 6-Month BTF Auction 2.421%, 2.476% previous
•US Existing Home Sales (Apr) 4.02M, 4.05M forecast, 4.01M previous
•US Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Apr) 0.2%, -2.9% previous
•US CB Employment Trends Index (Apr) 105.77, 05.52 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 02:30 Australia NAB Business Confidence (Apr) -29 previous
• 02:30 Australia NAB Business Survey (Apr) 6 previous
• 04:35 Japan 10-Year JGB Auction 2.350% previous
• 06:00 Japan Leading Index (MoM) (Mar) 1.3% previous
• 06:00 Japan Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Mar)-1.8% previous
• 06:00 Japan Leading Index (Mar) 114.4 forecast, 113.3 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro steadied on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump swiftly rejected Iran's response to a U.S. peace proposal, driving up oil prices and stoking concerns inflation could force the European Central Bank to tighten policy more aggressively.. ECB policymakers have warned they are ready to act if high energy prices spill over into broader inflation.Governing Council member Martin Kocher said in an interview published on Monday that "if the situation does not improve significantly, there will be no avoiding an interest rate move in the near future."Markets fully price two 25-basis point hikes across the ECB's three meetings to September and see around a 50% chance of a third by year-end. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1812(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1828(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1736(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1705(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling steadied against the U.S. dollar on Monday as investor assessed British Prime Minister Keir Starmer's vow to stay on at the helm.Starmer sought to quell a mounting rebellion in his party and said he would not walk away to avoid plunging Britain into a new political crisis.Labour lawmakers had turned on him after his party suffered the worst local election results for a governing party in more than three decades.the UK, Prime Minister Keir Starmer began a political fightback following heavy local election setbacks, placing closer European ties at the centre of his government reset strategy. Starmer faces increasing pressure from within the Labour Party, including criticism from a former minister, ahead of a key speech on Monday and Wednesday’s “King’s Speech,” which is expected to outline the government’s legislative agenda. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3658(Higher BB ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3701(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3571(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3532(SMA 20).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as the commodity-linked Canadian dollar strengthened as oil prices rose on supply fears as the Strait of Hormuz stayed largely closed.Crude oil prices climbed almost 3% after President Trump warned the Iran ceasefire was close to collapsing. President Donald Trump’s swift rejection of Iran’s response to a U.S. peace proposal raised concerns that the 10-week conflict could continue, keeping shipping through the Strait of Hormuz disrupted and pushing oil prices higher.Trump is expected to meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping later in the week, with trade and Iran among the items on the agenda. The Bank of Canada held its key interest rate steady last month, but Governor Tiff Macklem warned that if high oil prices begin driving inflation, the central bank may need to consider back-to-back rate hikes. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3738(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3792(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3658 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3583(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against yen on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump rebuffed Iran's response to a U.S. peace proposal, which kept concerns about an extended war intact and lifted oil prices. Trump said on Monday that a ceasefire with Iran was "on life support" after he rejected Tehran's response to a U.S. peace proposal, fueling concerns of a resumption of hostilities in the 10-week-old conflict that has killed thousands and halted vital energy flows.U.S. inflation data for April is due this week, with the consumer price index scheduled for Tuesday and the producer price index on Thursday. Last week, the U.S. jobs report released Friday showed that non-farm payrolls increased 115,000 in April, almost twice as much as expected, which further increased expectations the Federal Reserve was unlikely to cut interest rates this year.Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.58(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.16(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 153.18(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares ended Monday's session flat, constrained by a drop in luxury stocks, while stalled U.S.-Iran peace negotiations drove oil prices higher and also kept investors cautious.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.05 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.36 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.69 percent.
U.S. stocks closed slightly higher on Monday, with AI optimism fueling upward momentum even as the earnings-driven fervor of the recent rally eased in the home stretch of reporting season and as crude prices rose, stoking inflation worries as U.S.-Iran peace negotiations stalled.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.19 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.19 percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.10 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices reversed course to edge up on Monday in volatile trading, as investors assessed developments in U.S.-Iran diplomacy and awaited key U.S. inflation data due later this week.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $4,723.40 per ounce, by 2:02 a.m. EDT (1802 GMT) after falling over 1% earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures settled little changed at $4,728.70.
Oil prices settled up nearly 3% after Trump's comments fueled supply fears as the Strait of Hormuz stayed largely closed with no clear end in sight for the war.
U.S. crude settled up 2.78%, or $2.65 at $98.07 a barrel. Brent rose to $104.21 per barrel, up 2.88%, or $2.92 for the day.
