Market Roundup
• French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.339%, 2.097% previous
• French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.097%, 2.030% previous
• French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.217%, 2.065% previous
• US CB Employment Trends Index (Feb) 105.37, 105.18 previous
• US Consumer Inflation Expectations (Feb) 3.0%, 3.1% previous
• US 3-Month Bill Auction 3.605%, 3.610% previous
• US 6-Month Bill Auction 3.535%, 3.535% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•03:00 China Exports (YoY, Feb): 6.6% previous
•03:00 China Exports (Feb): 5.20M previous
•03:00 China Imports (Feb): 4.40M previous
•03:00 China Trade Balance (USD, Feb): $175.0B forecast, $114.1B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro initially gained but gave up ground on Monday as investors weighed the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the resulting surge in oil prices. Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei as a successor to his father as supreme leader, signaling that hardliners remained firmly in charge and closing paths to a swift end to the 10-day conflict.Oil prices soared to more than $119 a barrel as trade through the Strait of Hormuz remained halted, with some major producers cutting supplies and stoking investor worries over the global impact on inflation and interest rates. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1652(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1700(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1515(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1471(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound retreated on Monday as investors assessed the UK’s economic risks from the Middle East conflict. Oil prices jumped more than 25% to their highest levels since mid-2022 on Monday, with the global benchmark Brent crude touching $119.50 per barrel.Investors view Britain as more vulnerable than many European countries to an energy-price shock, partly due to weak public finances that could worsen if the government provides relief to power users.Rising oil and gas prices is likely increase pressure on the government to spend potentially billions of pounds on new support measures.Finance Minister Rachel Reeves said Monday that a rapid de-escalation of the conflict is the best way to shield households from rising energy bills and that the government is ready to support releasing emergency oil reserves if oil prices spike.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3442(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3499(SMA 20)).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3296(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3223(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Monday as a spike in the price of oil supported commodity liked Lonnie. Oil prices soared by as much as 29% during the session as Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members cut supplies during the expanding U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Prices then retreated from session highs as the U.S. and other Group of Seven (G7) countries considered tapping strategic petroleum reserves to limit inflation pressures from energy price increases. The U.S. and Canada are major producers of oil , which touched a near four-year high at $119.48 a barrel before giving back some gains. Canadian trade data for January is due on Thursday and the February employment report is set for the end of the week but their bearing on next week's Bank of Canada interest rate decision may be limited .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3639(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3763(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3520(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3492(23.6%fib)
USD/JPY: The US dollar retreated slightly on Monday as investors grew risk-averse amid concerns that soaring oil prices could hurt global inflation and growth. Japan is especially exposed due to its reliance on Middle East energy imports, unlike the less-dependent U.S. Despite this, Japanese economic momentum remains, with January wage growth, expected large pay hikes in April, and continued bank lending in February. Markets stay volatile, with analysts warning of potential stagflation risks. The rally in oil prices stalled even as the escalating conflict paralysed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting oil shipping for a fifth day.U.S. crude settled up 0.13%, or 10 cents, at $74.66 a barrel and Brent settled unchanged at $81.40 per barrel.Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.87(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.52(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 156.44 (Daily low).
Equities Recap
European equities rose Wednesday as oil prices paused after a two-day rally and cryptocurrency gains encouraged risk-taking amid ongoing Middle East tensions.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 1.24 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.94 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.65 percent.
Wall Street rebounded Monday from a steep selloff to close higher after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested the U.S.–Israeli war with Iran could be nearing an end, easing investor fears about the conflict’s impact on markets.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.50 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.83 percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.38 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices surged as much as 29% on Monday to their highest level since mid‑2022 before trimming gains to finish about 7% higher
Brent futures settled up $6.27, or 6.8%, to $98.96 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $3.87, or 4.3%, to $94.77.
Gold fell over 1%, as the escalating Iran war tightened global energy supplies, strengthened the dollar, and dampened hopes for near‑term interest‑rate cuts
