Market Roundup:
• US Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.4% ,0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
• US Core CPI (YoY) (Jan) 3.3% ,3.1% forecast, 3.2% previous
• US Core CPI Index (Jan) 324.74,323.38 previous
•US CPI (YoY) (Jan) 3.0%,2.9% forecast, 2.9% previous
•US CPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.5%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•US CPI Index, n.s.a. (Jan) 317.67, 317.46 forecast, 315.61 previous
• US CPI Index, s.a. (Jan) 319.09 ,317.69 previous
• US CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Jan) 0.65% , 0.04% previous
• US Real Earnings (MoM) (Jan) -0.3%,-0.1% previous
• US Crude Oil Inventories 4.070M,2.400M forecast, 8.664M previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•02:30 New Zealand Inflation Expectations (QoQ) (Q1) 2.1% previous
•05:00 Australia Home Loans (MoM) 0.1% previous
•05:00 Australia Invest Housing Finance (MoM) -1.0% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Wednesday after Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said the European Central Bank should ease policy only gradually and not target a difficult-to-define. ECB President Joachim Nagel stated on Wednesday that the bank should ease policy gradually and avoid targeting a neutral" interest rate. While the ECB has cut rates five times since June and may do so again, Nagel emphasized the need to be ready to act if a global trade war emerges. Economists view the neutral rate, which neither stimulates nor slows growth, as around 1.75% to 2.25%, according to a recent ECB research paper. The Bundesbank chief also talked about the upcoming German election and both Germany and Europe's need for change. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0423(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0476(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0370(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0302 (23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling firmed on Wednesday as investors awaited key UK economic data . Investors are awaiting the UK's GDP estimates for December, the preliminary figures for the fourth quarter, and industrial and manufacturing output data for December, all of which will shed light on Britain's economic landscape on Thursday.Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene said it was right to take a cautious and gradual approach to cutting interest rates, highlighting the risk that inflation pressures will remain persistent.The BoE cut interest rates by a quarter-point last week and halved its 2025 growth outlook in the face of global economic uncertainty. Sterling last fetched $1.244. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2513(61.8%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2562(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2392(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2262(23.6%fib)
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar held steady against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, unable to break out of its recent range as the Bank of Canada expressed concerns over the economic impact of a trade war. U.S. President Donald Trump has delayed a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada for a month until March 4 to allow negotiations over steps to secure U.S. borders and halt the flow of the drug fentanyl.The Trump administration will announce reciprocal tariffs on every country that charges duties on U.S. imports by Thursday, the White House said, a move that will ratchet up fears of a widening global trade war.The Bank of Canada's governing council felt that a protracted trade conflict with the U.S. would permanently shrink the level of domestic GDP, the minutes of a policy decision meeting showed.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4392(50% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4500(50% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4211(61.8% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4190 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar surged to a one-week high against the Japanese yen on Wednesday after January consumer prices rose more than expected, increasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer. The consumer price index rose 0.5%, while the core index gained 0.4%, both surpassing expectations of 0.3%. Annual inflation came in at 3.0% for the headline CPI and 3.3% for the core CPI, both above forecasts. Interest rate futures traders are now pricing in 27 basis points of cuts by December, down from around 37 basis points before the data, implying a larger chance of only one 25-basis-point cut for the year.The dollar jumped 1.29% to 154.44 Japanese yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.85(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.09(23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.10 (50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.09 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares hit an all-time high on Wednesday, boosted by strong earnings from Heineken and ABN AMRO, though caution remained due to U.S. inflation data and trade policies.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.34 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.50 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.17 percent.
The S&P 500 closed lower on Wednesday as stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation raised concerns over the Fed's rate cuts, while CVS Health and Gilead Sciences surged after positive quarterly reports.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.50% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.27% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.03% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices held steady on Wednesday, supported by safe-haven demand amid global trade war fears from Trump’s new tariffs and stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data.
Spot gold was steady at $2,895.30 per ounce as of 2:39 p.m. ET (1939 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 0.1% lower at $2,928.70.
Oil prices fell over 2% on Wednesday after Trump took a significant step toward diplomacy in the Ukraine war, which had been supporting oil prices due to concerns over global supplies.
Brent futures settled down $1.82, or 2.36%, at $75.18 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled down $1.95, or 2.66%, to $71.37.
U.S. crude futures fell more than $2 at their session low. The declines follow three days of gains, during which Brent climbed 3.6% and WTI rose 3.7%.