Market Roundup
•French Unemployment Rate (Q4) 7.3% , 7.5%forecast, 7.4% previous
•Spanish 3-Month Letras Auction 2.431%, 2.493% previous
•German 5-Year Bobl Auction 2.170%,2.420% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 13:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) (Dec) 1.6%forecast, -5.9% previous
•13:45 US Redbook (YoY) 5.7% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 15:00 Fed Chair Powell Testifies
• 17:00 ECB's Schnabel Speaks
• 20:30 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
• 20:30 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Tuesday as investors assessed the risks of an escalating trade war after U.S. President Donald Trump raised tariffs on metals and said he would announce plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on other countries over the coming days. Traders were also awaiting a testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later in the day .Recent comments from Fed officials have underscored their no rush approach to further rate cuts, particularly as they wait for further clarity over how Trump's policies will affect economic growth and inflation.Futures point to less than 40 basis points worth of rate cuts priced in by the year-end. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0328(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0375(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0279(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.222(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened on Tuesday as investors awaited UK GDP data and a speech from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey later in the day. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's remarks later on Tuesday will also be closely watched, as investors look for clues on the central bank's stance regarding interest rates and economic outlook. Markets are also preparing for Thursday's British GDP data, which could influence expectations for the BoE's rate decisions. At GMT 13:23, the pair was trading up 0.17% at 1.2385. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2442(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2553(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2316(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2168(23.6%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rose on Tuesday, supported by stronger global risk sentiment and higher commodity prices. Trump signed a proclamation to raise U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum to 25%, effective March 4, but agreed to consider exempting Australia. Meanwhile, February’s Australian consumer sentiment remained weak, indicating that inflation is not being driven by excessive consumer spending, which reassured the Reserve Bank. At GMT 05:34, The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.01% to $0.6277 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6321(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6381(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6249(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6183(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Tuesday as market awaited testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later in the day and inflation data on Wednesday. Powell will deliver his semiannual monetary policy testimony before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee at 1500 GMT. U.S. inflation data is due on Wednesday, following strong jobs figures that supported U.S. Treasury yields and the greenback last week. U.S. President Donald Trump moved to substantially raise tariffs on steel and aluminium imports and said he would announce plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on other countries over the coming days.Futures priced in around 37 basis points' worth of Fed rate cuts by the year-end which implies one 25 bp cut and a 48% chance of a second easing move.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 152.19 (Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.69(38.2%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 150.87(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 150.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares were flat on Tuesday following a record high in the previous session, as investors weighed the risks of a trade war after U.S. President Donald Trump increased tariffs on metals.
At GMT (13:11) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.01 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.18 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.15 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold surged to a new record high, driven by concerns over an escalating global trade war sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Spot gold climbed to an all-time high of $2,942.70 an ounce during Tuesday's Asian trade, eclipsing the previous peak of $2,911.30 set on Monday and marking the eighth record set so far in 2025.
Oil prices continued to rise on Tuesday due to concerns over Russian and Iranian oil supply disruptions and potential sanctions, despite fears that escalating trade tariffs could hinder global economic growth.
Brent crude futures were up $1.2, or 1.6%, at $77.07 a barrel by 1313 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.11 or 1.5% to $73.43.
