America’s Roundup: Dollar range bound, Wall Street ends lower, Gold retreats, Oil closes at three-week high

Market Roundup

•Canada Housing Starts (Jul) 229.1K, 249.0K forecast, 240.8K previous

•US Export Price Index (MoM) (Jul) -1.3%, 0.2% forecast, -0.7% previous

•US Housing Starts (MoM) (Jul) -12.4%, 19.7% previous

•US Housing Starts (Jul) 1.239M, 1.340M forecast, 1.415M previous

•US Import Price Index (MoM) (Jul) -0.4%, 0.1% forecast, -0.3% previous

•US Building Permits (Jul) 1.443M, 1.370M forecast, 1.374M previous

•US Building Permits (MoM) (Jul) 5.0%, -2.6% previous

•US Import Price Index (YoY) (Jul) 5.9%, 7.1% previous

•US Export Price Index (YoY) (Jul) 8.2%, 10.2% previous

•US Redbook (YoY) 7.6%, 8.3% previous

•US Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul) 1.08%, 1.29% previous

•US Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul) 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous

•US Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jul) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous

•US Capacity Utilization Rate (Jul) 76.3%, 76.3% forecast, 76.2% previous

•US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jul) -2.3%, 0.1% forecast, -4.8% previous

•US Pending Home Sales Index (Jul) 71.2, 72.9 previous

•US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) 4.0%, 4.3% forecast, 4.3% previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT) 

•02:30 Australia Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q2) 0.8% forecast, 0.8% previous

•02:30 Australia Wage Price Index (YoY) (Q2) 3.2% forecast, 3.3% previous

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)  

•No  Data ahead

Currency Forecast

EUR/USD : The euro edged lower against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as broader risk sentiment deteriorated  due to geopolitical uncertainty. Trump said Tuesday that no talks were underway with Iran and claimed the Strait of Hormuz was open, contradicting Iran’s statement that the key shipping route remained closed. Middle East uncertainty continues to cloud economic outlook for Europe, which relies heavily on imports to meet its energy needs. Meanwhile, German investor sentiment rose more than expected to 34.2 points in August, supported by strong quarterly results and export orders despite high energy prices and transport disruptions. A reading by ZEW on views of the current economic situation improved to -61.1 points from -77.6 in July, also better than expected. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1633(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1655(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1525(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1497(SMA 20).

GBP/USD: The pound eased on Tuesday after UK labour market data showed signs of cooling, with private-sector wage growth slowing and job vacancies falling to their lowest level outside the pandemic era since 2014. Regular private-sector earnings rose 2.8% year-on-year in the three months to June, the weakest growth since late 2020 and in line with the Bank of England’s forecast.The unemployment rate held at 4.9%, above expectations for a decline to 4.8%, while vacancies fell to 707,000 in the three months to July from 711,000 previously. The softer data reduced expectations for near-term BoE rate hikes and put modest pressure on sterling .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3602(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3648(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3503(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3427(SMA 20).

 USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as investors weighed prospects of Canada reaching a deal with Washington to avoid new tariffs on its goods. Canada’s Carney spoke with Trump as Ottawa seeks a last-minute deal to avoid 50% U.S. tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian imports. Canadian home sales rose for a fourth straight month in July, increasing 0.5% from June, and prices edged higher. Separate data for July showed that housing starts unexpectedly fell, declining 5% compared to the previous month. West Texas Intermediate oil futures rose 0.6% to $85.03 a barrel ​as prospects receded for a deal to end the Middle East war, heightening worries about ‌prolonged ⁠energy supply disruptions. Oil is one of Canada's main exports. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3975(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4005(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3853(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3809(Lower BB).

USD/JPY:  The U.S. dollar strengthened on Tuesday as the standoff in the Middle East heightened inflation concerns, while rising expectations of a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike supported the yen. The BOJ is widely expected to raise interest rates at its September meeting, with recent hawkish comments from policymakers and media reports suggesting the central bank could adopt a more aggressive tightening path. Japan’s government bond yields have also surged as markets increasingly price in further rate increases, with the 10-year yield reaching its highest level since 1996.Immediate resistance can be seen at 160.20 (SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.67(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at  159.16(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 158.63 (Aug 14th low).

Equities Recap

Europe’s benchmark STOXX 600 fell to a more than two-week low on Tuesday, pressured by rising bond yields and renewed inflation concerns, while U.S. President Donald Trump’s denial of talks with Iran heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.70 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.80 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.82 percent.

Wall Street’s main indexes closed lower on Tuesday, led by declines in semiconductor stocks, as Middle East uncertainty drove bond yields to multiyear highs, raising concerns over borrowing costs and inflation.

Dow Jones closed down  by  0.22% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.69% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 1.33%  percent.

Commodities Recap

Oil prices settled at their highest level in more than three weeks on Tuesday after Iran vowed to take a more offensive stance and keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, while the United States ruled out extending the ceasefire

Brent crude rising 15 cents, or 0.17%, to settle at $91.02 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 44 cents, or 0.52%, to $84.94 a barrel. Both benchmarks closed at their highest levels since July 24.

Gold prices fell on Tuesday as Treasury yields surged to multi-year highs, while rising oil prices amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions fueled inflation concerns and reduced demand for non-yielding bullion

Spot gold had eased ​1.1% to $4,364.90 per ounce by 01:33 p.m. EDT (1733 GMT), while U.S. gold futures for ​December delivery settled 1.2% lower at $4,420.6.