Market Roundup
• Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (Jan) 121.6K, 135.5K forecast
• Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Jan) 1.2%, 1.9% forecast, 0.3% previous
• German Current Account Balance n.s.a (Jan) 11.8B, 20.9B previous
• US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Mar) 4.9%, 4.3% previous
• US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Mar) 3.9%, 3.5% previous
• US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Mar) 54.2, 64.3 forecast, 64.0 previous
• US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar) 57.9, 63.1 forecast, 64.7 previous
• US Michigan Current Conditions (Mar) 63.5, 65.0 forecast, 65.7 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Friday after news broke that German Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz had struck an agreement with the Greens to significantly increase state borrowing, just days before a key parliamentary vote next week. Meanwhile, German borrowing costs climbed as investors interpreted the latest developments as a signal that the surge in spending in Europe's largest economy would lead to more bond issuance. Merz is pushing for the outgoing German parliament to approve a €500 billion fund aimed at infrastructure development, alongside major changes to borrowing rules, to boost economic growth and increase military spending in Europe's largest economy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0947 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0804(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0693(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound weakened on Friday after the UK economy unexpectedly contracted in January. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell by 0.1%, mainly driven by a sharp decline in industrial output compared to December, according to the Office for National Statistics. This marks a setback for Finance Minister Reeves, whose primary objective is to stimulate economic growth. Reeves is expected to present new economic and fiscal forecasts in her Spring Statement on March 26, with sluggish growth and rising borrowing costs putting additional pressure on the fiscal margin established in October's budget.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3003(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3059(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2876(March 11th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2822(38.2%fib)
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Friday as equity markets rebounded and Mark Carney was sworn in as the country's prime minister, with the currency notching its second straight weekly gain. The swearing in of Carney as Canada's prime minister puts a former central banker in charge of the country and its economy.Canada is a major producer of commodities, including oil, so the loonie tends to be sensitive to the signal stocks send about the economic outlook.For the week, the currency gained 0.1% even as the trade war between the U.S. and other countries, including Canada, heated up and after the Bank of Canada cut its benchmark interest rate further to support the economy. The loonie was trading 0.6% higher at 1.4360 per U.S. dollar, Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4447(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4506 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4327((38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4189 (50%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened on Friday as yen weakened after union wage talks in Japan concluded. Japanese firms agreed to raise wages by more than 5% on average this year, on course for their most substantial pay hike in over three decades - a relief for many workers though it's unclear if the increases will lead to a meaningful jump in consumer spending.As annual labour negotiations wrapped up this week, many of Japan's biggest companies said they met union demands in full.Hefty pay hikes have been seen as essential to counter inflation-induced sharp increases in the cost of living. Many companies, emboldened by record profits on the back of a weak yen, are also keen to retain staff amid labour shortages. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.04(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.46(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.63(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 146.74(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European stocks surged on Friday, with German equities leading the rally after the country's political parties reached a historic agreement to significantly increase state borrowing.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 1.05 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.86 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1.13 percent.
U.S. stocks rebounded on Friday as investors sought bargains following a volatile week, during which U.S. President Donald Trump's escalating trade war sparked recession fears and dampened risk appetite.
Dow Jones closed up by 1.65 %percent, S&P 500 closed up by 2.13% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 2.62% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold surged past the key $3,000 mark on Friday for the first time, as investors flocked to the safe-haven asset, driving a historic rally in response to economic uncertainty triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff war.
Spot gold hit an all-time high of $3,004.86 earlier in the session, before easing 0.1% to $2,986.26 as of 02:01 p.m. ET (1801 GMT) on profit taking.
Oil prices rebounded by 1% on Friday, ending the week nearly unchanged, as investors assessed the reduced likelihood of a quick resolution to the Ukraine war that could restore Russian energy supplies to Western markets.
Brent crude futures settled 70 cents, or 1%, higher at $70.58 a barrel, after falling 1.5% in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) <CLc1> closed at $67.18 a barrel, up 63 cents, or 1%, after losing 1.7% on Thursday.
