Market Roundup
• Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 0.8%, 1.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
• Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 0.8%, 1.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
• Canada RMPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.6%, 2.4% forecast, 7.7% previous
• Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 1.1%, -0.4% forecast, -0.4% previous
• Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Feb) 0.3%, -0.2% forecast, -0.4% previous
• Canada RMPI (YoY) (Feb) 8.6%, 8.0% previous
• Canada IPPI (YoY) (Feb) 5.4%, 5.6% previous
• Canada IPPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.4%, 1.1% forecast, 2.8% previous
• Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) 0.9% 1.1% previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 414 412 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 552, 553 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Friday as an expanding Middle East conflict and a surge in oil prices reinforced inflation fears Israel launched fresh attacks on Iran a day after President Donald Trump told the country not to repeat its strikes on Iranian natural gas infrastructure. Europe’s heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil has left it exposed to rising crude prices as the Straight of Hormuz, which carries a fifth of global oil supplies, remains largely cut off. Attacks on energy infrastructure across the Gulf have pushed oil prices higher and threatened a rise in inflation above the ECB's 2% target rate. The European Central Bank kept the policy rate unchanged on Thursday, but policymakers expect to discuss hikes in the coming months. Traders are currently pricing in two 25 basis-point rate hikes by year-end. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1546(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1625 (SMA20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1416(23.6%fib a break below could take the pair towards 1.1386(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped lower on Friday as oil prices resumed their upward trend, but stayed on course for a weekly rise after the Bank of England raised expectations of rate hikes this year.The BoE on Thursday voted unanimously to keep borrowing costs on hold, and said it was "ready to act" to see off risks emanating from the war in the Middle East.Money market traders have moved to aggressively price rate hikes, with investors expecting 80 basis points of tightening this year, implying at least three quarter-point rate hikes. Markets have also dismissed the prospect of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, but in contrast to the BoE, do not expect the U.S. central bank to raise rates. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3384(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3525(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3303(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3210(23.6%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher against the U.S. dollar on as upbeat Canadian retail sales data and higher oil prices offset stronger US dollar.Canada retail sales rose 1.1% m/m to C$69.65B in January, driven by stronger motor vehicle and parts sales, according to Statistics Canada.Oil prices jumped nearly $2 in volatile trading as the Iran conflict showed no signs of easing, with the U.S. set to deploy additional troops to the Middle East .The BoC has held rates at 2.25% since October, with Governor Tiff Macklem saying there is time to assess the Iran war’s impact, but warning persistently high energy prices could trigger rate hikes. Money markets lifted bets on a Bank of Canada rate hike, pricing in over a 20% chance next month as the Iran conflict persists and rising oil prices fuel inflation concerns .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3759(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3789(higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3665(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3641(23.6%fib)
USD/JPY: The US dollar strengthened on Friday as investor concern intensified over the inflationary impact of the Iran war-driven global energy shock. Geopolitical tensions remained a key driver, with the United States and Israel signaling restraint on further strikes targeting energy infrastructure, while Iran warned it would not tolerate additional escalation—keeping markets cautious.Energy supply concerns have eased slightly as diplomatic and policy efforts aim to stabilize oil prices, reducing near-term inflation fears but leaving longer-term risks intact. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged but maintained a tightening bias, warning that rising oil prices could intensify inflation pressures. Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized a growing focus on upside inflation risks over potential growth downside, reinforcing expectations of a near-term rate hike.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.22(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.67(38.2% fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.79(50% fib).
Equities Recap
European equities rose Wednesday as oil prices paused after a two-day rally and cryptocurrency gains encouraged risk-taking amid ongoing Middle East tensions.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 1.44 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.63 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 1.82 percent.
Wall Street closed sharply lower Friday, with the S&P 500 hitting a six‑month low as the U.S.–Israeli war with Iran dragged on, stoking inflation fears and expectations of higher interest rates.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.97 percent, S&P 500 closed down by 1.51 percent, Nasdaq settled down by 2.02percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell by 1.8% on Friday as the dollar strengthened on a report that the United States will deploy extra troops in the Middle East, fanning concerns of higher oil prices, inflation, and with it, elevated interest rates.
Spot gold fell 1.8% to $4,563.64 per ounce as of 2:14 p.m. ET (1814 GMT) after earlier rising 1%. U.S. gold futures for April delivery were 0.7% lower at $4,574.90.
Oil prices hit a nearly four-year high on Friday as Iraq declared force majeure on foreign-operated oilfields and the U.S. escalated military deployment to the Middle East amid the Iran conflict.
Brent futures for May settled up $3.54, or 3.26%, to $112.19 a barrel, the highest since July 2022. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for April, which expired on Friday, settled up $2.18, or 2.27%, at $98.32. The more actively traded second-month U.S. crude futures settled at $98.23, 2.8% higher
