Market Roundup
•US continuing jobless claims 1,897K, 1,880K forecast, 1,855K previous
•US Exports (Jan) 269.80B ,266.50B previous
•US Imports (Jan) 401.20B ,364.90B previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 221K ,234K forecast, 242K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 224.25K, 224.00K previous
•US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q4) 1.5%, 1.2% forecast, 2.2% previous
•US Trade Balance (Jan) -131.40B ,-128.30B forecast, -98.10B previous
•US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q4) 2.2% ,3.0% forecast, 0.8% previous
•Canada Exports (Jan) 74.46B ,70.59B previous
•Canada Imports (Jan) 70.49B, 68.93B previous
•Canada Trade Balance (Jan) 3.97B, 1.40B forecast, 1.70B previous
•US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Jan) 0.8%, 0.7% forecast, 0.7% previous
•US Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Jan) -1.3%, 1.4% previous
•Canada Ivey PMI n.s.a (Feb) 53.6 ,46.2 previous
•Canada Ivey PMI (Feb) 55.3, 50.6 forecast, 47.1 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•03:00 China Exports (YoY) (Feb) 5.0% forecast, 10.7% previous
•03:00 China Imports (YoY) (Feb) 1.0% forecast,1.0% previous
•03:00 China Trade Balance (USD) (Feb) 143.10B forecast, 104.84B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro touched a four-month peak against the dollar on Thursday after the European Central Bank cut interest rates for the sixth time in nine months .The shared currency has also benefited from Germany ramping up spending, with a massive 500 billion euro ($540.90 billion) special fund sought for infrastructure and plans to increase defense investment shackled by rigid borrowing rules. Hefty government spending, which can be supportive for growth overall, can also exacerbate price pressures.The ECB on Thursday raised its inflation forecast to 2.3% this year for the euro zone, above the 2.1% seen three months ago. Measures of longer-term inflation in the euro zone have already surged from around 2.05% early this week to 2.24% by Thursday, an unusually large shift. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0803(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0947(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0697(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0596(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound was little changed on Thursday as uncertainty over U.S. tariffs clouded the outlook for markets. Financial markets remained choppy this week as President Trump's aggressive tariff policies weakened consumer and business confidence, leading to global stock market declines.On the data front, Britain's construction sector contracted sharply in February, with residential house-building declining at one the fastest rates since 2009 due to weak demand and high borrowing costs, according to a survey published on Thursday.The preliminary reading of the S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 44.6 last month from January's 48.1, its weakest level since May 2020 and below all forecasts of economists. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2920(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2949(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2777(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2672(50%fib)
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened to a nine-day high against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as Canada's trade surplus widened more than expected and investors weighed prospects of additional reprieves from U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods.U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the one-month reprieve on hefty tariffs on goods imported from Mexico and Canada that has been granted to automotive products is likely to be extended to all products that comply with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade. On the data front ,Canada’s trade surplus rose to C$4 billion in January as fears of tariffs from the U.S. pushed exports of cars and energy products higher.The loonie was trading 0.3% higher at 1.4290 to the U.S. dollar, or 69.98 U.S. cents, after touching its strongest intraday level since February 25 at 1.4243 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4352 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4533 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4196(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4115 (Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The dollar weakened against the yen on Thursday as yen firmed as jittery investors turned increasingly risk-averse amid an extended sell-off on Wall Street triggered by an escalating trade war initiated by the United States.Investors are worrying about the potential impact of the Trump administration's big tariffs on the U.S. economy. The sell-off in U.S. equities and safe-haven buying of the yen and Swiss franc has mostly overshadowed the euro's performance on Thursday. Data showed that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week. Investors will be eyeing Friday's more comprehensive payrolls data.Traders now see the Federal Reserve lowering borrowing costs by 25 basis points for the first time this year in June. Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.00(Psychological level) an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.65(38.2%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.59(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.17(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares trimmed losses to close flat on Thursday as an ECB rate cut boosted bank stocks, balancing the impact of rising long-term bond yields.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.83 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.47 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.29 percent.
Major U.S. stock indexes tumbled on Thursday as investors worried about the impact of President Donald Trump's trade policies on businesses and the broader economy.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.99 %percent, S&P 500 closed down by 1.78% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 2.61% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged lower on Thursday as rising U.S. Treasury yields and profit-taking pressured the metal. Investors shifted focus to Friday’s payroll data, seeking clues on the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.
Spot gold fell 0.1% to $2,915.83 an ounce as of 01:49 p.m. ET (1849 GMT), after rising in the last three sessions. U.S. gold futures settled largely unchanged at $2,926.6.
Oil prices remained largely unchanged in volatile trading on Thursday, with Brent settling below $70 per barrel. Market sentiment was pressured by ongoing trade tensions between the U.S., Canada, and China, along with OPEC+ plans to increase production.
Brent futures settled up 16 cents, or 0.2%, at $69.46 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 5 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $66.36.
