Market Roundup
• HCOB Italy Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 47.4, 46.6 forecast, 46.3 previous
• HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 45.8 ,45.5 forecast, 45.0 previous
• HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 46.5 ,46.1 forecast, 45.0 previous
• HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 47.6, 47.3 forecast, 46.6 previous
• UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 46.9 ,46.4 forecast, 48.3 previous
• UK Mortgage Approvals (Jan) 66.19K, 66.00K forecast, 66.51K previous
• UK Mortgage Lending (Jan) 4.21B ,3.34B forecast,
• UK Net Lending to Individuals (Jan) 5.947B, 4.700B forecast, 4.600B previous
•EU Core CPI (YoY) (Feb) 2.6%, 2.5% forecast, 2.7% previous
•EU Core CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.6%, -0.9% previous
•EU CPI (YoY) (Feb) 2.4% , 2.3% forecast, 2.5% previous
•EU CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.5%, -0.3% previous
•EU CPI, n.s.a (Feb) 127.32, 126.72 previous
•EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Feb) 2.6% ,2.7% previous
•EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Feb) 0.5%, -0.7% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 13:30 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.241% previous
• 13:30 French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.423% previous
• 13:30 French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.339% previous
•14:30 Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.9 forecast, 51.6 previous
•14:45 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 51.6 forecast, 51 51.2 previous
•15:00 US Construction Spending (MoM) (Jan) -0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous
•15:00 US ISM Manufacturing Employment (Feb) 50.3 previous
•15:00 US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Feb) 55.1 previous
•:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 50.6 forecast, 50.9 previous
•15:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Feb) 56.2 forecast, 54.9 previous
16:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction 4.195% previous
•16:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction 4.180% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•15:00 EUR German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro surged on Monday as investors assessed the potential for increased fiscal spending in the eurozone and the possibility of a peace agreement in Ukraine.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy received strong support in Britain following a failed meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated on Sunday that European leaders had agreed to draft a peace proposal for Washington. The Kremlin said on Monday that someone would have to force Zelenskiy to make peace.The single currency climbed 0.85% to $1.0464, pulling away from Friday's low of $1.0359. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0496(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0583(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0435(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0378(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened against the dollar on Monday as European nations intensified diplomatic efforts to secure peace in Ukraine.At a London summit, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, alongside leaders from France and Ukraine, announced plans to draft a peace proposal for submission to the United States. The initiative aims to secure U.S. support for security guarantees Ukraine deems essential in countering Russian aggression.While specific details were not disclosed, French President Emmanuel Macron told Le Figaro ahead of the summit that the plan would propose a one-month ceasefire, covering air and sea attacks but excluding ground combat.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2700(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2854(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2635(EMA 5), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2579(50%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened against dollar on Monday as risk sentiment improved largely driven by a widespread rebound in equities. The Australian dollar, often considered a liquid proxy for the Chinese yuan due to Australia’s strong trade ties with China, also saw gains following the release of stronger-than-expected Chinese PMI data. The official purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 50.2 in February from 49.1 a month prior, the highest since November and beating analysts' forecasts. Looking ahead, investors shifted their focus to Australia's upcoming economic growth data for the fourth quarter, set to be released on Wednesday. At GMT 13:21, The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.44% to $0.6230. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6252(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6308(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.683(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6172(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar inched higher against the yen on Monday as concerns grew over Trump's tariff policies. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed on Sunday that tariffs on Canada and Mexico will take effect on Tuesday, though President Donald Trump will decide whether to maintain the planned 25% rate.Trump sparked uncertainty last week by referencing an April 2 deadline for tariffs on Canada and Mexico but later reaffirmed the Tuesday deadline. He also announced an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods, effectively doubling the 10% duties imposed on February 4. Immediate resistance can be seen at 151.21(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 150.07(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 148.81(23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Monday after regional leaders agreed to draft a Ukraine peace plan, while Bitcoin surged following President Donald Trump's announcement of a new U.S. strategic cryptocurrency reserve.
At GMT (13:19) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.27 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.04 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.20 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices gained on Monday, following a more than three-week low in the previous session, as they drew support from a weaker dollar and safe-haven buying triggered by concern over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies.
Spot gold gained 0.5% to $2,873.93 an ounce by 1209 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 1.3% to $2,885.
Oil prices were little changed on Monday after registering a monthly loss for the first time since November, while investors await the outcome of efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war and repercussions from U.S. tariffs.
Brent crude rose 35 cents, or 0.48%, to $73.16 a barrel by 1307 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 33 cents, or 0.47%, at $70.09.
