Argentina: Still an open election; but Scioli has options

With 92.8% of votes counted, Argentina's primary election results showed Scioli's FPV with 38.4% of the vote, Macri's Cambiemos with 30.1%, and Massa's UNA with 20.6%. Rather than polarizing the race into a two-candidate contest, the primaries showed a division into three groups, which keeps the election open.

If these results were to hold in the general election, Scioli would be under but close to the constitutional thresholds to win in the first round and would have to face a run-off election on November 22. According to the constitution, in order to win in the first round of the general election, a candidate must garner more than 45% of the vote or more than 40% with a 10-point margin over the second-place candidate. The primary results do not indicate a clear victory for Scioli in the first round, and polls (Ipsos) give Macri an edge in a potential run-off.

But investors should not conclude that this means a run-off is now the baseline scenario. Scioli still has the option to reach agreements with Peronist territorial leaders (mainly, De La Sota or Rodriguez Saa), and for Macri, the decisive variable seems to be his ability to build an alliance with Massa. In this respect, a first-round Scioli victory is still very possible given the lack of indications about a workable agreement between Macri and Massa.