Market Roundup
- US Non-Farm Payrolls Mar +126, (consensus 245k, previous +264k)
- US Private Payrolls Mar +129k, (consensus 237k, previous +264k)
- US Manufacturing Payrolls Mar -1k, (consensus 10k, previous +2k)
- US Government Payrolls Mar -3k, (previous 0k)
- US Unemployment Rate Mar 5.5%, (consensus 5.5%, previous 5.50%)
- US Average Earnings MM Mar 0.3%, (consensus 0.2%, previous 0.10%)
- US Average Workweek Hrs Mar 34.5h, (consensus 34.6h, previous 34.6h)
- US Labor Force Partic Mar 62.7%, (previous 62.80%)
- US U6 Underemployment Mar 10.9%, (previous 11.00%)
- German foreign minister Steinmeier says too early to celebrate agreement on Iran nuclear programme, hopes Iran will stick to deal
- BASEL talks on mitigating banks' interest-rate risks at impasse, consensus likely delayed for months - sources
- September three-month eurodollar futures rally, suggesting lessened chance of federal reserve interest-rate hike by September
- US S&P E-mini equity futures unofficially end down 19.75 pts, or 1 pct, to 2039.75, indicating lower open for stocks on Monday
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hits nearly two-month low of 1.829 pct, two-year Treasury note yield hits two-month low of 0.472 pct after U.S. March non-farm payrolls data
FX Recap
USD/JPY on way for a third consecutive weekly loss. Demand for the safe haven assets rose after a weaker-than-expected US non-farm payrolls release, pushing USD/JPY pair to a session low of 118.70. USD/JPY might favour the downside in the days ahead if the pair closes below the 100 DMA at 119.10 on a weekly basis, with 118.50/60 and 117.70 being the potential bearish targets. The immediate support is located at 118.70, under which losses could be capped at 118.31 levels. On the other hand, a rise above 119.17 (100-DMA), could see the pair re-test its 50-DMA at 119.70.
USD/CHF: Selling pressure around the US dollar on Friday after dismal NFP data dragged USD/CHF to session lows in sub-0.9500 levels. The pair is trading in multi-week troughs following the miserable results from the US labour market, retreating for the third consecutive week. Supports are at 0.9450 (low ) ahead of 0.9437 (200-d MA) and then 0.9400 (psychological level). On the upside, a breakout of 0.9743 (high Apr.1) would open the door to 0.9760 (high ) and finally 0.9807 (21-d MA).
EUR/USD: EUR extended its advance vs. the US dollar, rising as high as 1.1030 and closing its third consecutive week with gains. key driver was, of course, the dollar, which plummeted after weak jobs data. EUR/USD now faces a tough challenge, which is trying to overcome the critical resistance band at 1.1030/1.1060 on a more sustainable basis. EUR/USD bears have little chance of gaining any control while the pair remains above 1.0959.
GBP/USD rallied about 100 pips as the greenback weakened broadly on the back of disappointing nonfarm payrolls. The pair reached an 8-day high of 1.4944 before finding resistance, pulled back from highs and settled in a range just above the 1.49 mark over the last minutes. Yesterday's UK election debate barely affected the pound, although uncertainty about May general election results will keep investors wary. Immediate supports at 1.4880, 1.4840 and 1.4790, while resistances are seen at 1.4950, 1.5000 and 1.5040.
USD/NZD: Weak data pushed the USD lower across the board, including the Kiwi. Markets for now shrugged-off a sharp drop in the latest Fonterra global diary trade price index, which is bearish for the Kiwi. The NZD/USD pair rose to a one-week high of 0.7624 after the non-farm payrolls data. The immediate resistance is seen at 0.7662, above which gains could be extended to 0.77 levels. On the flip side, a break below 0.76, could drive the pair lower to its 100-DMA at 0.7565.
