Market Roundup
•UK Labour Productivity (Q4)-0.3%,-1.0% forecast,0.6% previous
•UK Apr Claimant Count Change 8.9K,13.9K forecast,10.9K previous
•UK Mar Average Earnings ex Bonus 6.0%,6.0% previous
•UK Mar Average Earnings Index +Bonus 5.7%,5.3% forecast,5.6% previous
•UK Mar Unemployment Rate 4.3%,4.3% forecast,4.2% previous
•German Apr HICP (YoY) 2.4%, 2.4% forecast,2.3% previous
•German Apr CPI (MoM) 0.5%, 0.5% forecast, 0.4% previous
•German Apr CPI (YoY) 2.2%, 2.2% forecast,2.2% previous
•German Apr HICP (MoM) 0.6%,0.6% forecast,0.6% previous
•German May ZEW Current Conditions -72.3,-75.0 forecast,-79.2 previous
•German May ZEW Economic Sentiment 47.1,44.9 forecast,42.9 previous
•EU May ZEW Economic Sentiment 47.0, 46.1 forecast,43.9 previous
•US Apr PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) 0.4%, 0.2% previous
•US Apr PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) 3.1%,2.8% previous
•US Mar Wholesale Sales (MoM) -1.1%, -0.9% forecast, 0.0% previous
•US Apr Core PPI (MoM) 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•US Apr PPI (MoM) 0.5%, 0.3% forecast ,0.2% previous
•US Apr Core PPI (YoY) 2.4%, 2.4% forecast ,2.4% previous
•US Apr PPI (YoY) 2.2%, 2.2% forecast ,2.1% previous
•US Redbook (YoY) 6.3%, 6.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•20:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 1.000M forecast,0.509M previous
•23:00 Canada Apr Leading Index (MoM) 0.26% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•13:10 US Fed Governor Cook Speaks
•13:15 ECB's Schnabel Speaks
•14:00 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro rose against dollar on Tuesday as after unexpected increase in U.S. producer prices in April that indicated inflation remained elevated early in the second quarter.The producer price index for final demand rose 0.5% last month after falling by a downwardly revised 0.1% in March, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. The Eurozone's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the first quarter will be released on Wednesday. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was down 0.05% at 105.12. The euro was up 0.14% against the dollar at 1.080 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0827(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0878(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0782 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0728(61.8% fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened against dollar on Tuesday as investors digested Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill remarks and British wages data. Pill’s remarks came after data showed that British wages grew by more than expected in the first three months of the year, but other figures suggested the labour market is losing some of its inflationary heat, keeping the BoE on alert about when to cut interest rates. Regular wages, excluding bonuses, grew by 6.0% in the first three months of 2024 compared with the same period a year earlier. Economists polled had forecast wage growth of 5.9%.Unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in the period, however, its highest since the three months to July 2023. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2592(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2619(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2536(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2496 ( 50% fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased against the Swiss franc on Tuesday after data showed unexpected rise in US producer prices.U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in April amid strong gains in the costs of services like portfolio management and hotel accommodation, indicating that inflation remained stubbornly high early in the second quarter. The report from the Labor Department on Tuesday also showed wholesale goods prices rising solidly last month, though the cost of food declined. Traders trimmed their expectations for a September interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The dollar dipped against the Swiss franc, down 0.21% at 0.9060. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9076 (May 10th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9150 (23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9039 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9017(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against yen on Tuesday as markets participants awaited key U.S. CPI data this week.Median forecasts are for core consumer prices to rise 0.3% in the month, compared with 0.4% in March, pulling the annual rate down to 3.6 . Traders expect the US central bank to start its easing cycle in September. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of six others, was little changed at 105.28, following its first rise in three weeks. The dollar strengthened against the yen, up 0.23% at 156.60.Strong resistance can be seen at 156.97 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.86(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.10(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 155.38(38.2% fib).
Equities Recap
European steadied on Tuesday as investors braced for a key U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks due later in the day.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.18 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.01 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.18 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices firmed on Tuesday as investors awaited the crucial inflation report this week, which can significantly influence the outlook on U.S. interest rates.
Spot gold was up 0.4% at $2,345.39 2 per ounce by 1209 GMT, after dropping 1% on Monday. U.S. gold futures rose 0.4% to $2,351.20.
Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday, after U.S. data suggested inflation remains sticky, while OPEC maintained its demand forecast for the year.
Brent crude futures fell 55 cents to $82.81 a barrel at 1339 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures lost 67 cents to $78.45 a barrel.
