Market Roundup
•US Apr PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) 0.4%, 0.2% previous
•US Apr PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) 3.1%,2.8% previous
•US Mar Wholesale Sales (MoM) -1.1%, -0.9% forecast, 0.0% previous
•US Apr Core PPI (MoM) 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•US Apr PPI (MoM) 0.5%, 0.3% forecast ,0.2% previous
•US Apr Core PPI (YoY) 2.4%, 2.4% forecast ,2.4% previous
•US Apr PPI (YoY) 2.2%, 2.2% forecast ,2.1% previous
•US Redbook (YoY) 6.3%, 6.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 06:00 Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) -11.6% forecast ,-8.5% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro rose against dollar on Tuesday as after unexpected increase in U.S. producer prices in April that indicated inflation remained elevated early in the second quarter.The producer price index for final demand rose 0.5% last month after falling by a downwardly revised 0.1% in March, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. The Eurozone's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the first quarter will be released on Wednesday. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was down 0.05% at 105.12. The euro was up 0.14% against the dollar at 1.080 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0827(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0878(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0782 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0728(61.8% fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened against dollar on Tuesday as investors digested Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill remarks and British wages data. Pill’s remarks came after data showed that British wages grew by more than expected in the first three months of the year, but other figures suggested the labour market is losing some of its inflationary heat, keeping the BoE on alert about when to cut interest rates. Regular wages, excluding bonuses, grew by 6.0% in the first three months of 2024 compared with the same period a year earlier. Economists polled had forecast wage growth of 5.9%.Unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in the period, however, its highest since the three months to July 2023. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2592(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2619(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2536(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2496 ( 50% fib).
USD/CAD : The Canadian dollar steadied against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday, with the currency unable to break out of its recent trading range ahead of a key U.S. inflation report that could guide expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The U.S. consumer price index report, due on Wednesday, is expected to show core inflation slowing to 3.6% on an annual basis in April. Investors are leaning toward the Bank of Canada waiting until July, rather than June, to begin cutting interest rates after data on Friday showed the Canadian economy adding five times the number of jobs that was forecast.The loonie was trading nearly unchanged at 1.3660 per U.S. dollar, or 73.21 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3634 to 1.3690. .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3700(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3734 (May 9th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3632 (38.2 % fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3600 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against yen on Tuesday as markets participants awaited key U.S. CPI data this week.Median forecasts are for core consumer prices to rise 0.3% in the month, compared with 0.4% in March, pulling the annual rate down to 3.6 . Traders expect the US central bank to start its easing cycle in September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave a bullish assessment on Tuesday of where the U.S. economy stands, with an outlook for continued above-trend growth and confidence in falling inflation that, while eroded by recent data, remains largely intact. The dollar strengthened against the yen, up 0.23% at 156.60.Strong resistance can be seen at 156.97 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.86(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.10(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 155.38(38.2% fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks closed broadly higher on Tuesday as investors reacted to the latest batch of European and U.S. economic data, and remained largely optimistic about interest rate cut by several central banks.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.16 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.10 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.20 percent.
US stocks closed higher on Monday as investors digested U.S. producer prices data and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell..
Dow Jones closed down by 0.32% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.48 % percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.75% percent.
Treasuries Recap
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields briefly hit an 11-day high after the PPI data and then they retraced.
The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 3.2 basis points to 4.449%, from 4.481% late on Monday.
Commodities Recap
Gold gained on Tuesday as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of critical U.S. inflation data releases this week.Spot gold added 0.89% to $2,356.95 an ounce.
Oil prices settled lower on Tuesday, after U.S. data stoked concerns that interest rates may stay high, but potential risks to supply from Mideast tensions and wildfires in Canada put a floor under prices.
Brent crude futures settled down 98 cents, or 1.18% at $82.38 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) settled down $1.10, or 1.39% at $78.02 a barrel.
