Market Roundup
•New Zealand Trade Balance (MoM) (Jan)-519M,-745M forecast,-88M previous
•New Zealand Trade Balance (YoY) (Jan)-2,310M,-2,340M previous
•New Zealand Imports (Jan)6.73B,7.60B previous
•New Zealand Exports (Jan)6.21B,7.51B previous
•Australia Manufacturing & Services PMI (Feb)52.00,55.70 previous
•Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (Feb)51.5,52.3 previous
• Japan au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Feb)53.8, 53.7 previous
• Japan Manufacturing & Services PMI (Feb)53.80,53.10 previous
• UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan) 4.5%, 2.8% forecast,1.9% previous
• UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan) 5.5%, 3.6% forecast,2.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 08:30 HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 49.6 forecast, 49.1 previous.
• 08:30 HCOB Germany Services PMI (Feb): 52.4 forecast, 52.4 previous.
• 09:00 HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Feb): 52.3 forecast, 52.1 previous.
• 09:00 HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 49.9 forecast, 49.5 previous.
• 09:00 HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Feb): 51.9 forecast, 51.6 previous.
• 09:00 HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Feb): 51.5 forecast, 51.3 previous.
• 09:30 S&P Global UK Composite PMI (Feb): 53.3 forecast, 53.7 previous.
• 09:30 S&P Global UK Services PMI (Feb): 53.5 forecast, 54.0 previous.
• 09:30 S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 51.5 forecast, 51.8 previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Friday as euro was weighed down by uncertainty over European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's tenure. Christine Lagarde expects completing her mission as president of the European Central Bank will take until the end of her term, she told the Wall Street Journal in an interview on Thursday, amid reports she would step down before her contract expired.Lagarde's comments come after the Financial Times reported on Wednesday that she planned to leave her job before the end of her contract in October 2027 and ahead of next year's French presidential election, to give outgoing French leader Emmanuel Macron a say in picking her successor. Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau announced plans to step down from his job last week, in a move that gives Macron a chance to pick the next French central bank chief. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1801(Feb 19th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1832(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1742(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1676(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower on Friday as dollar was supported by data in the previous session which showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, underscoring labour market stability.Investors are now turning their attention to the release of the U.S. core PCE price index and advance fourth quarter GDP figures later in the day, which could drive the next move in currencies.Investors continue to price in roughly two Fed rate cuts this year, though expectations for such a move in June have dipped to a roughly 58% chance from 62% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Sterling languishing near a one-month low at $1.3447 and headed for a weekly drop of more than 1.5%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3560(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3638(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3427 (SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3380(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped lower on Friday as Australian dollar weighed down by a stronger US dollar and weaker domestic PMI data. Greenback was buoyed by a run of better-than-expected economic data, a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook and as tensions between the U.S. and Iran kept markets on edge. The S&P Global Flash Australia Composite PMI fell to 52.0 in February from 55.7 in January, signaling expansion for a seventeenth month but at a softer pace than the start of 2026.Looking ahead, monthly consumer price index will be released on February 28, followed by the gross domestic product report on March 4, ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next meeting on March 17.Markets imply a 76% chance of the Reserve Bank of Australia hiking the 3.85% cash rate in May, and even March has nudged up to 28%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7126(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7202(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7068(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6700(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar gained some ground on Friday after data showed the Japan's annual core consumer inflation hit 2.0% in January. Japan’s annual core consumer inflation fell to a two-year low, matching the Bank of Japan’s 2% target in January, according to Friday’s data.The year-on-year rise in Japan’s core consumer price index (CPI), excluding volatile fresh food, matched the median market forecast at 2% in January, down from December’s 2.4% increase.The data comes amid mixed signals in the economy, which showed minimal growth in the final quarter of last year, while exports surged and manufacturers’ confidence has strengthened so far in 2026. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.03(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.96(SMA 20) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.78 (61.8%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.12 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian shares were mixed on Friday as concerns over heavy spending on artificial intelligence and the risk of a potential U.S.-Iran conflict pressured major market benchmarks.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 1.07% , South Korea was up at 2.31%,Hang Seng down at 0.99%,
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Friday but remained on track for a weekly loss as the U.S. dollar climbed to a near one-month high, while investors awaited key inflation data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy moves.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $5,020.95 per ounce, as of 0701 GMT, and was down about 0.5% for the week so far. U.S. gold futures for April delivery were up 0.8% at $5,037.60.
Oil prices rose on Friday, headed for their first weekly gain in three, on growing concerns a conflict may erupt between the U.S. and Iran.
Brent crude futures rose 33 cents, or 0.5%, to $71.99, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 62 cents, or 0.9%, to $67.05 as of 0715 GMT.
