Market Roundup
• Japan Jul Current Account n.s.a. 3.193T,1.534T previous
• Japan GDP (YoY) (Q2) 2.9%,3.1%forecast, -1.8% previous
•Japan GDP GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.7%, 0.8% forecast,-0.5% previous
•Australia Jul Building Approvals (MoM) 10.4%,10.4% forecast, -6.4% previous
• China Aug CPI (MoM) 0.4%, 0.5% forecast, 0.5% previous
• China Aug CPI (YoY) 0.6%, 0.7% forecast, 0.5% previous
• China Aug PPI (YoY) -1.8%,-1.5% forecast, -0.8% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•No data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased slightly against the dollar on Monday as investors digested the U.S. jobs report, which did not provide the much-wanted clarity on the size of the rate cut the Federal Reserve. Investors are considerably more dovish and have priced in 115 basis points of easing by Christmas and another 127 basis points for 2025.Data on August U.S. consumer prices on Wednesday should underline the case for a cut, if not the size, with headline inflation seen slowing to 2.6% from 2.9%.Markets are also fully priced for a quarter-point cut from the European Central Bank on Thursday, but are less sure on whether it will ease in both October and December.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1118(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1185(Aug 20th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1039(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0958 (61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged up against the dollar on Monday as weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data heightened concerns about the health of the world's largest economy. Friday's closely watched report indicated that labor market momentum was slowing more than anticipated, raising doubts about the U.S. achieving a smooth economic landing. While the data maintained expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the precise scale and timing of the cut remain uncertain. Following the report, the likelihood of a 50-basis-point rate cut stands at 1-in-3, while the chance of a 25-basis-point cut is at 2-in-3, remaining nearly unchanged from before the jobs data. The pound was about 0.09% higher at $1.3131.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.32236(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3265(Aug 27th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3092(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3052(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar stabilized on Monday following last week’s sell-off, which was driven by fears of a U.S. economic downturn impacting risk assets. The Aussie bounced 0.2% at $0.6685, having slid 1.4% last week as data showed the U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in August and previous gains were revised lower. The mixed U.S. non-farm payrolls report did not clarify the extent of the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cut this month. Futures currently imply a 30% chance of a half-point reduction, following less dovish comments from top officials. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6691(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6727(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6658(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6596(61.8%fib).
NZD/USD stabilized around $0.6180 on Monday as uncertainty remained about the size of the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut later this month. Friday's data showed U.S. employers added fewer jobs than anticipated in August, although the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%. The report did not clarify the extent of the Fed's anticipated rate cut for next week's meetingTop of FormBottom of Form. This week features a sparse economic calendar for Australia and New Zealand. Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter will speak at an event on Wednesday, while New Zealand will release some secondary data on migration and food prices. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6212(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6254 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6154(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6098(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher from one month low against the yen on Monday as investors were undecided on the scale of a Federal Reserve rate cut expected later this month and looked to this week's U.S. inflation reading for more clues. The yen surrendered some of its gains after having risen 2.73% last week as risk aversion gripped markets and in the wake of some volatility following the nonfarm payrolls report. The market brushed off data from earlier in the session which showed Japan's economy expanded in April-June at a slightly slower pace than initially reported, largely due to downward revisions in corporate and personal spending. Dollar was last 0.36% up at 142.81 per yen Strong resistance can be seen at 144.22 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.00 (Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 141.90(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 141.49 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Japan's Nikkei share average dropped over 3% on Monday, with technology stocks experiencing some of the largest declines
The Nikkei was down 3.02% at 35,292.62, as of 0050 GMT, dropping below the psychologically key 36,000 mark
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were flat on Monday, as investors awaited U.S. inflation print due this week to strengthen their bets on the size of a likely reduction in Federal Reserve's interest rates.
Spot gold held its ground at $2,497.25 per ounce, as of 0305 GMT. U.S. gold futures edged 0.1% higher to $2,526.10.
Oil futures surged by a dollar in early trading on Monday due to the approach of a potential hurricane system towards the U.S. Gulf Coast and a market rebound following Friday’s selloff caused by weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $1, or 1.48%, to $68.67 a barrel by 0146 GMT. Brent crude futures were up 99 cents, or 1.39%, at $72.05 a barrel.
