Market Roundup
- Philippine central bank says October balance of payments at $469 mln surplus
- Thai Oct customs-cleared trade balance +2.10 bln dlrs (vs +1.65 bln dlrs in Reuters poll) - Commerce Ministry
- Thai Oct customs-cleared imports -18.21 pct yr/yr (vs -16.03 pct in Reuters poll) - Commerce Ministry
- Thai Oct customs-cleared exports -8.11 pct yr/yr (vs -6.95 pct in Reuters poll) - Commerce Ministry
- Dutch Nov manufacturing confidence +4.0 pts after +2.4 pts in Oct - CBS
- Norway's quarterly FNO consumer confidence indicator drops to 23-year low of -11.3 points in q4 vs preliminary -4.1 in q3 -Tabloid vg
- S.Korea household credit up 3.0 pct in q3 vs 3.0 pct rise in Q2 - c.bank
- Japan stocks may outperform amid Fed rate hike - Reuters BUZZ.
- Japan EconMin Amari - Minimum wage rise to contribute to economic growth.
- Japan Nov flash mfg PMI 52.8, highest in 20-mos, Oct 52.4, output and new export orders pick up.
- SF Fed paper - China growth slowing where it hurts most.
- FOMC Chair Yellen - Most Fed policymakers expect gradual pace of rate hikes, overly aggressive hikes would have only temporary benefits.
- Sweden FSA chief considers mortgage borrowing cap, no crisis yet - Reuters.
- (0245 ET/ 0745 GMT) France Nov business climate index, 103.0 eyed; last 103.0.
- (0400 ET/ 0900 GMT) Germany Nov Ifo business climate index, 108.2 eyed; last 108.2.
- (0400 ET/ 0900 GMT) Germany Nov Ifo current conditions index, 112.4 eyed; last 112.6.
- (0400 ET/ 0900 GMT) Germany Nov Ifo expectations index, 104.0 eyed; last 103.8.
- (0400 ET/ 0900 GMT) Italy Oct wage inflation; last unch m/m, +1.2% y/y.
- (0600 ET/ 1100 GMT) GB Nov CBI distributive trades index, 25.0 eyed; last 19.0.
- (0600 ET/ 1100 GMT) Italy Oct trade balance non-EU - flash; last bln surplus.
- (0830 ET/ 1330 GMT) US Q3 GDP - 2nd estimate, +2.1% AR eyed; last +1.5%.
- (0830 ET/ 1330 GMT) US Q3 PCE prices/core, +1.2% and +1.3% AR eyed; last +1.2%, +1.3%.
- (0830 ET/ 1330 GMT) US Q3 GDP deflator, +1.2% AR eyed; last +1.2%.
- (0830 ET/ 1330 GMT) US Oct goods trade balance - advance; last $58.63 bln deficit.
- (0900 ET/ 1400 GMT) US Sep CaseShiller 20, +0.4% m/m nsa, +5.1% y/y eyed; last +0.4%, +5.1%.
- (0900 ET/ 1400 GMT) BE Nov leading indicator, -4.0; last -4.0.
- (1000 ET/ 1500 GMT) US Nov consumer confidence index, 99.5 eyed; last 97.6.
- (1000 ET/ 1500 GMT) US Nov Richmond Fed services/mfg shipments/comp indices; last 18/-4/-1.
- N/A Spain 3 and 9-month treasury bill auctions.
- (0400 ET/ 0900 GMT) BoS Q3 non-financial company results.
- (0400 ET/ 0900 GMT) Netherlands E1-2 bln 0.25% 2025 DSL auction.
- (0430 ET/ 0930 GMT) ECB 7-day refi at fixed 0.05%, E61 bln allotment eyed, last bln.
- (0500 ET/ 1000 GMT) BoE Gov Carney, et al parliamentary testimony.
- (0530 ET/ 1030 GMT) ECB/BdF de Galhau press conference on new 20-euro banknote.
- (0700 ET/ 1200 GMT) Finland E1 bln max 0.875% 2025 RFGB auction.
- (1515 ET/ 2015 GMT) BoC DepGov Patterson presentation in Regina.
USD: The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. unit against six major rival currencies, edged down about 0.1 percent to 99.683, after it rose to an 8-month high of 100.00 overnight, within sight of its 12-year peak of 100.39 touched on March 13. Rate hike prospects allow dollar to brush off downbeat data.
USD/JPY: The pair has been capped below 123 handle on the day after having crawled off last week's low of 122.62, trading has been soggy and volumes light. Position adjustments ahead of Thursday's U.S. Thanksgiving holiday probably weighing on the pair. The dollar index however hovered near an 8-month peak, rate hike prospects allow dollar to brush off downbeat data. Indicators released on Monday showed manufacturing sector growth slowing to its weakest pace since October 2013 and existing home sales declining 3.4 percent last month. Correction of recently overbought daily studies is already well underway and could extend upto 122.40 levels (23.6 5 Fibo retracement of 118.05-123.75 rise). Bullish Ichi alignment remains dominant, prices are above the 21-DMA & the Nov 16 swing low of 122.22.
AUD/USD: Falling commodity prices, broad USD strength keep antipodeans subdued, AUD/USD inched up to 0.7207, from 0.7187 in early trade, only to retreat back to 0.7190 levels.The pair has gained around two cents in the past two weeks but met heavy resistance near 0.7250, is likely to consolidate between 0.7150 and 0.7250 until fresh news emerges.RBA Governor Glenn Stevens speech is awaited at 0905 GMT, and expectations are he might try and talk down the Aussie given it has proved resilient to a sharp fall in the price of iron ore, Australia's top export earner. Immediate resistance for the pair is seen at 0.7207 (Session high Nov 24), while supports is located at 0.7186 (5 DMA). Slew of crucial US economic data due later in the NY session, including prelim GDP and consumer confidence will also be closely eyed along with RBA Chief Stevens' speech scheduled in the European session.
GBP/JPY: The pair has broken major trend line support (trend line joining 181.82 and 184.30) and declined till 185.63. Short term trend remains bearish. Trend reversal level -187. Any break above 187 will take the pair to next level 188/188.25. Minor resistance is around 186.20. Major intraday support -185.40 and break below targets 184.80/184.30.
USD/CAD: The pair has retreated after making a high of 1.3435 and is currently trading at 1.3349. Canadian dollar has slightly recovered after Saudi Arabia has pledged to stabilise crude oil prices. The focus will on Upcoming OPEC meeting which is to be held on Dec 4th and the hope that some production cuts will be forthcoming. On the lower side minor support is around 1.3340 and break below targets 1.3315/1.3290./1.3245. The pair's major support is around 1.3220 and below that level decline till 1.3160/1.3100 is possible. The short term resistance is around 1.3380 and above that jump till 1.3435/1.3460.
EUR/USD: The pair halted its recovery as the greenback reversed losses and peaked into the green against its major peers. Consolidation is seen between narrow range 1.0600 and 1.0656. It is currently trading around 1.06330. Any break above 1.06750 will confirms minor bullishness , a jump till 1.0720 is possible. Break of 1.0720 will take the pair further till 1.0770/1.0800. Overall bearish invalidation only above 1.0830. On the downside major support is around 1.0580 (trend line joining 1.06731 and 1.06168) and break below confirms major trend reversal a decline till 1.0500 is possible.
Equities Recap
Asian shares struggled on Tuesday after a healthcare mega-merger failed to impress Wall Street.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan wavered in and out of positive territory, and was last down 0.2 percent. Japan's Nikkei Cclosed about 0.23 percent up after a long weekend (markets were closed for a national holiday on Monday).
Chinese shares dropped, with the blue chip CSI300 indexof the largest listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen down 1.2 percent and the Shanghai Composite Index down 1 percent.
Taiwan stocks close down 1.0 pct at 8,400.14 points, while Seoul shares unofficially close up 0.71 pct.
Commodities Recap
Spot iron ore lost more than 5 percent last week and came close to its lowest level since July amid a global glut and faltering Chinese demand.
Gold and silver languished near their lowest level in six years on Tuesday, while platinum dipped to a seven-year low.
Spot gold ticked up 0.1 percent to $1,070.30 an ounce by 0330 GMT, but not too far from last week's low of $1,064.95, the weakest since February 2010.
Silver eased 0.4 percent, after slumping to $13.86 on Monday, the lowest since August 2009. Platinum on Tuesday hit $835.55, its lowest since December 2008.
Crude prices on the otherhand won a reprieve after Saudi Arabia pledged to work toward oil price stability. U.S. crude futures were off earlier highs but still up 0.5 percent at $41.95 per barrel, up from a three-month low of $38.99 hit on Friday. Brent added 0.5 percent to $45.03.
Treasuries Recap
Australian government bond futures bounced, with the three-year bond contract up 3 ticks at 97.860. The 10-year contract also added 3 ticks to 97.0600, while the 20-year contract gained 2.5 ticks to 96.5350.
New Zealand government bonds gained, sending yields 3 basis points lower at the short end of the curve.
