Market Roundup
• EU M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Dec): 2.8%, 3.0% forecast, 3.0% previous.
•EU M3 Money Supply (Dec): 17,230.7B, 17,189.3B previous.
•EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) (Dec): 3.0%, 2.9% forecast, 2.9% previous.
•EU Consumer Confidence (Jan): -12.4, -12.4 forecast, -13.1 previous.
•EU Consumer Inflation Expectation (Jan): 24.1, 26.7 previous.
•EU Industrial Sentiment (Jan): -6.8, -8.1 forecast, -8.5 previous.
•EU Selling Price Expectations (Jan): 10.0, 10.8 previous.
•EU Services Sentiment (Jan): 7.2, 6.0 forecast, 5.8 previous.
•EU Business Climate (Jan): -0.41, -0.56 previous.
•EU Business and Consumer Survey (Jan): 99.4, 97.0 forecast, 97.2 previous.
•US Initial Jobless Claims: 209K, 206K forecast, 210K previous.
•Canada Trade Balance (Nov): -2.20B, -0.70B forecast, -0.40B previous.
•US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q3): 4.9%, 4.9% forecast, 3.3% previous.
•US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3): -1.9%, -1.9% forecast, 1.0% previous.
•US Trade Balance (Nov): -56.80B, -43.40B forecast, -29.20B previous.
•US Exports (Nov): 292.10B, 303.00B previous.
•US Imports (Nov): 348.90B, 332.10B previous.
•US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,827K, 1,860K forecast, 1,865K previous.
•Canada Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (Nov): 2.50%, 2.18% previous.
•Canada Exports (Nov): 63.94B, 65.78B previous.
•Canada Imports (Nov): 66.14B, 66.18B previous.
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 206.25K, 204.00K previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•15:00 US Factory Orders (MoM) (Nov): 1.7% forecast, -1.3% previous.
•15:00 US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Nov): 6.6% previous.
•15:00 US Factory Orders ex Transportation (MoM) (Nov): -0.2% previous.
•15:00 US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Nov): 0.5% previous.
•15:00 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Nov): 0.2% forecast, 0.5% previous.
•15:00 US Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Nov): -0.4% previous.
•15:00 US Natural Gas Storage: -237B forecast, -120B previous.
•15:00 US 4-Week Bill Auction: 3.630% previous.
•16:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction: 3.630% previous.
•17:00 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4): 5.4% forecast, 5.4% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro strengthened on Thursday as the dollar softened amid ongoing uncertainty over U.S. economic policy and geopolitical developments. On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve adopted a more relaxed tone on labour market and inflation risks, leading investors to believe interest rates could remain on hold for a longer period. The dollar had plunged earlier in the week, hitting a four-year low after U.S. President Donald Trump appeared unconcerned about the currency’s weakness, but later found support after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated Washington’s commitment to a strong-dollar policy . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2047(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2065(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1939 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1849(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound traded near multi-year highs against the dollar on Thursday as investors focused on next week’s Bank of England decision and UK political developments. Holding rates this month appears less controversial after data showed the strongest private sector activity since April 2024 and inflation remaining unexpectedly above the MPC’s 2% target, according to a Reuters poll. Political uncertainty also lingered after Labour’s Andy Burnham was blocked from standing, sparking accusations of internal maneuvering, while the party continues to trail Nigel Farage’s Reform UK in polls ahead of key local elections in May. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3848(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3889(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3691(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3572(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar climbed to a fresh three-year high on Thursday as rising expectations of an RBA rate hike continued to support bullish sentiment. Markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point hike next Tuesday after inflation surprised to the upside last quarter, which would make the RBA the first non-Japan G10 central bank to tighten policy in the current easing cycle.Domestically, Australia’s December-quarter trade data also boosted sentiment, with export prices rebounding and import prices rising unexpectedly, lifting terms of trade. Export prices surged 3.2% q/q in Q4 after a 0.9% drop in Q3, while import prices increased 0.9% q/q, beating forecasts for a 0.2% decline. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7083(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7108(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.07020(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6958 (38.2%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower on Thursday as the yen strengthened on speculation of possible joint US-Japan intervention after the New York Fed’s rate check. Traders remain wary of possible unilateral action by Tokyo, even as BoJ data shows no official market intervention so far.The yen has jumped nearly 4% since Friday without FX intervention, and if Tokyo wants to capitalize on the move, now is the moment to act. The yen surged to a 2.5-month high near 153.00 per dollar on Tuesday after the New York Fed conducted dollar/yen rate checks on Friday at Tokyo’s request. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.14(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.36(38.2%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.09(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.28 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European equities rebounded on Thursday, lifted by a surge in the price of oil and precious metals that cushioned a hit from earnings-related jitters.
At (GMT 13:38),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.99 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.88 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.89 percent.
Commodities Recap
Brent crude futures surged on Thursday to a four-month high amid rising fears of a possible U.S. military strike on Iran, OPEC’s fourth-largest producer pumping about 3.2 million barrels per day.
Brent crude futures were up $1.65, or 2.4%, to $70.05 a barrel at 1308 GMT. At its intra-day peak, Brent traded as high as $70.35 a barrel, its highest since late-September. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $1.59, or 2.5%, to $64.80 a barrel.
Gold climbed to a record near $5,600 an ounce on Thursday as investors sought safe-haven demand amid rising geopolitical risks and weaker U.S. economic signals.
Spot gold was 2.1% higher at $5,513.09 an ounce by 1122 GMT, after earlier touching $5,594.82. U.S. gold futures for February delivery were up 3.8% at $5,506.30 after hitting an all-time high of $5,626.80.
