Nigeria’s new election law leaves gaps: 5 reforms for free, fair and credible polls 
RBNZ Holds Rates at 2.25% as Middle East Conflict Fuels Inflation Concerns 
Bank of Japan Signals Potential Rate Hike as Inflation Risks Rise Amid Energy Shock 
Energy Price Spike Won't Trigger Lasting Inflation, Analysts Say 
Crypto tolls in the Strait of Hormuz shows why bitcoin thrives in times of crisis 
This fuel crisis could last for a while. It’s time for a new approach to fuel use - end it 
RBI Holds Interest Rates Steady Amid Middle East Tensions and Global Uncertainty 
Uranium Bull Market Gains Momentum Amid Supply Deficits and Geopolitical Tensions 
Federal Reserve Probes Big Banks Over Private Credit Exposure Amid Growing Systemic Risk Concerns 
Paraguay Holds Interest Rate at 5.5% as Inflation Remains Stable Amid Global Uncertainty 
RBA's Hauser Flags Uncertainty on Rate Settings Amid Iran War Economic Risks 
Bank of Japan Signals Rate Flexibility Amid Yen Volatility 
J.P. Morgan Downgrades Essity AB on Rising Costs and Weak Earnings Outlook 
Why the future of marijuana legalization remains hazy despite high public support 
From a central bank perspective, the main change since we last published has been a shift in the RBA’s commentary on the economy. The RBA has dropped references to 3% GDP growth in recent communications, preferring to note that recent data “are consistent with ongoing moderate growth.”
At the same time, the RBA has also acknowledged the recent lift in the unemployment rate. So while the RBA is yet to officially downgrade growth forecasts, it certainly feels as if the distribution of risks to the forecast set are starting to tilt to the downside. We continue to expect 50bp of cuts from the RBA in 2H17.
We forecast AUD to JPY 79 and against USD at 0.69 levels even if the RBA does not deliver easings in 2H17, three hikes from the Fed in 2017 will still leave minimal carry support for AUD (refer above chart), which is particularly important given its vulnerability to a turn in China’s momentum or adverse developments in global trade.
Please be noted as to how much the underlying pair has tumbled in spot FX markets in the recent times, we’ve run through in our technical write up, please go through following weblink:
Accordingly, in the recent past, we’ve already advocated options strategies to arrest the bearish risks. For more details on our previous write up on this stance please visit below weblink:
http://www.econotimes.com/FxWirePro-AUD-JPY-macros-outlook-and-option-trades-perspectives-685318
Well, by now you must’ve been convinced what would our previous strategy have earned or saved your trading exposure in this underlying pair of AUDJPY. Subsequently, for now, we continue to uphold these option trade recommendations with a view to tackling both short-term as well as the long-term puzzling trend:
Hold a 6M 80.00 AUDJPY one-touch put, short a 3M in premium-rebate notional.
Hold 3M AUDUSD ATM vs short 1Y AUDJPY 25D Put, 1.5:1 AUD vega.
