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If the RBA’s right, interest rates may not fall for another year. Here’s why. 
Australian government bonds remained mixed during Asian trading session Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained a steady rate in its monetary policy meeting, held early today, while maintaining a positive outlook on the country’s labour market.
The yield on Australia’s benchmark 10-year note, which moves inversely to its price, surged 1 basis point to 1.824 percent, the yield on the long-term 30-year bond traded tad higher at 2.441 percent while the yield on short-term 2-year traded 1 basis point lower at 1.467 percent by 03:45GMT.
According to the RBA’s monetary policy statement, the Australian labour market remains strong. There has been a significant increase in employment and the unemployment rate is at 4.9 per cent. The vacancy rate remains high and there are reports of skills shortages in some areas.
The strength in labour market has led to some pick-up in wages growth, which is a welcome development. Continued improvement in the labour market is expected to see some further lift in wages growth over time, although this is still expected to be a gradual process.
The outlook for the global economy remains reasonable, although growth has slowed and downside risks have increased. Growth in international trade has declined and investment intentions have softened in a number of countries.
Lastly, inflation remains low and stable. Underlying inflation is expected to pick up gradually over the next couple of years, although this has been taking a little longer than earlier expected.
The central scenario is for underlying inflation to be 2 percent this year and 2¼ per cent in 2020. In the near term, headline inflation is expected to decline because of lower petrol prices earlier in the year, while underlying inflation is expected to remain broadly stable, the statement further noted.
Meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200 index traded flat at 6,238.50 by 03:50GMT, while at 03:00GMT, the FxWirePro's Hourly AUD Strength Index remained neutral at 70.79 (a reading above +75 indicates a bullish trend, while that below -75 a bearish trend). For more details, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex
