Australian labour market holding up well in the great transition

The recent data suggest that the job losses in Australia's mining and those sectors associated with mining investment are more than being offset by gains in residential construction, catering services and other parts of the services sector there is little reason to expect a change in this dynamic in the near future. 

Notwithstanding the outsized 42k jump in Australia's employment in May, which is equivalent to an annualised rate of 4.4%, net job creation is expected to have remained positive in June, although only just, says Societe Generale.

5k new jobs are forecasted and ignoring likely revisions employment growth would have slowed to an 11k average monthly gain over the three months to June, down quite sizably from the average 28k in the three months to March. 

With labour force growth in line with the demographic trend i.e. an unchanged participation rate, a 10k rise in unemployment, but this would not be sufficient to raise the rounded unemployment rate from 6.0%, added Societe Generale.