Australia’s Q1 GDP likely to disappoint with rise of 0.4 pct q/q, annual growth decline to 1.7 pct: ANZ Research

Australia’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of this year is expected to post another disappointing rise in GDP of 0.4 percent q/q, according to the latest report from ANZ Research. This would see annual growth decline to 1.7 percent - its slowest pace since 2009 in the midst of the global financial crisis.

GDP growth, at +0.4 percent q/q and +1.7 percent y/y, looks to be a little lower than the RBA expected at the time of its May Statement on Monetary Policy, with the Bank’s June forecast of +1.7 percent y/y requiring growth of 0.6-0.7 percent q/q on average in Q1 and Q2.

For the RBA, the surprise weakness looks to have come from business investment which partial data suggest was soft again in Q1.

In Wednesday’s report, the focus will once again be on the household indicators – consumption and income. Weak retail sales volumes (-0.1 percent) point to relatively modest growth in consumer spending. While retail spending accounts for only around 30 percent of consumption, falling house prices and ongoing soft income growth will have weighed on consumer spending in the quarter.

"We will also be watching the GDP measure of average wages. Preliminary data suggest this is likely to continue to show only fairly modest growth," the report further commented.