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The Bank of Korea meets tomorrow to decide interest rates and expectations are for the BOK to turn dovish. The probability of a rate cut is currently high due to a weaker global manufacturing index, lower stock prices and lower inflation, which more than offset a weaker KRW.
But the BOK would prefer to wait until financial market volatility subsides. All 13 economists (including Nomura) surveyed by Bloomberg expect the BOK to stay on hold at 1.50% tomorrow.
The January meeting minutes implies that there is only one dovish member in the Monetary Policy Committee, who mentioned the increasing downside threats to inflation and growth that requires to be addressed by monetary policy.
"Given deteriorating macro data, we assign a 40% probability to a rate cut tomorrow and a 60% probability to a cut thereafter. As such, we would not be surprised if one or two MPC members dissented with their votes." said Nomura in a report
