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Bank of America (BofA) has revised its forecast, stating the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle has concluded. This shift follows a stronger-than-expected December jobs report, which revealed a substantial payroll increase and a dip in unemployment to 4.1%.
Citing the labor market's resilience, BofA’s US economics team emphasized that current economic conditions no longer support further monetary easing by the Fed. The team noted that inflation remains elevated, exceeding the central bank’s target, with 2025 projections pointing to persistent upside risks.
While upcoming data revisions are unlikely to sway the Fed’s stance, BofA expects these adjustments to show a modest downward shift rather than altering the broader trend. The bank also observed that market-based inflation and core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) have plateaued at levels inconsistent with the Fed’s goals, providing little justification for additional policy shifts.
“Economic activity remains robust, and the labor market has stabilized after earlier volatility,” BofA economists concluded, underscoring their belief that the case for further easing has diminished.
This outlook reflects confidence in the economy's strength, despite ongoing inflation challenges, signaling that the Fed may maintain its current policy stance in the foreseeable future.
