Bitcoin Cycle Low Ahead? Analyst Assigns 65% Probability to Further Downturn

With a 35% chance that the bottom has already been set, Benjamin Cowen, creator of Into The Cryptoverse, predicts a 65% probability that Bitcoin's cycle low is still to come. The realized price of Bitcoin—roughly $53,000—is the main focus of Cowen's research as it is a crucial level. Historically significant cycle lows, he claims, have been about or below this on-chain cost basis. Therefore, a strong bottom considerably above $53,000 would depart from the seen historical trends and indicate a continuous bear market process with possible downsides to that level.

Other technical and macroeconomic variables, including a possible "Bart Simpson" pattern on the four-hour chart and an assumption that the Federal Reserve may have to raise rates more, support Cowen's careful attitude as they create a less supportive liquidity environment for risk assets like Bitcoin. Cowen's probability-weighted hypothesis highlights that Bitcoin's recovery is still weak even if some market consensus contradicts the view that the bear market may have already ended. For traders, important levels to keep an eye on are approximately $70,000 for near-term support and $53,000 as the essential realized price reference in case of an extended bear market.