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The Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz called for patience and resilience in an environment of global disturbances and choppy growth, remaining optimistic about the country’s performance in the next couple of years. He believes that the Canadian economy will rebound on support from an economic recovery in the United States.
Remaining even more optimistic over the Alberta wildfire and that its impact will not hamper the economy’s growth in the second quarter, he mentioned that the country’s adjustment to lower oil prices will continue to be uneven and risks remain. However, policy makers remain confident over the nation’s export sector that continues to heal.
"It does seem that our core forecast narratives around the US economy and around Canada’s exports remain intact. Continued patience is required, but we have the right to be optimistic," Poloz said in a speech Wednesday at Whitehorse, Yukon.
The Governor also elaborated on the Bank’s estimate of the economic effect of the devastating Alberta wildfires, following which almost 90,000 people had to be evacuated from Fort McMurray. With residents returning and some companies moving to restart production, the Bank now estimates the wildfires will reduce annualized growth in the second quarter by about 1.00 to 1.25 percentage points. This will be followed by a sizable rebound due to the restoration of oil output and the beginning of reconstruction efforts. Such a growth profile could yield average growth over the two quarters quite close to that set out in the Bank’s forecast in April, the Governor said.
Moreover, the UK referendum on June 23 concerning Britain’s membership in the European Union poses further risks to the global economy that can advocate for a change in view, he added. However, the economy will stand ready and markets have already factored in the plausible outcome of the next week’s referendum and therefore, will likely not be massively affected.
Meanwhile, policymakers remain doubtful over a quick rebound in oil prices. If the current trend continues, Canada is most unlikely to witness a surge in investment spending in the near term, meaning further downside risks at the still-low levels.
