BoE's inflation expectations to soften

The Bank of England's quarterly survey of inflation expectations asks householders for their expectations at the 1, 2 and 5 year horizons. The Bank's belief is that the 5-year expectation is a good measure of the credibility of the Bank's inflation target but usually it just moves in line with expectations at the other horizons.

One of the biggest factors driving the 1-year view is the behaviour of oil, and thus of petrol, prices. Petrol prices actually reached their low in the first quarter before then rising steadily during the second. 

The survey will have been performed in the second week of August by which time petrol prices were starting to fall again but the move was only quite small. 1-year expectations should ease slightly from 2.2% to 2.1% yoy.

"The survey also asks whether interest rates will rise over the next 12 months. The percentage expecting a hike is gradually increasing and stood at 38% in May. Given the MPC's rhetoric has been preparing the markets and the nation for a policy tightening next year that percentage should have risen further in the latest survey", says Societe Generale.