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BoJ is likely to stay on hold

The BOJ will hold a Monetary Policy Board meeting on 14-15 July. It is expected to adhere to its current monetary policy framework, including the amounts and residual maturities of its bond purchases.

A snapshot of the economy based on BOJ's June Tankan survey and major data for April/May shows improvements in three areas: capex, consumption, and inflation. 

Risks include high inventory levels (mainly for consumer durables), and weak export volume due to China's economic slowdown. Based on this, the BOJ might slightly upgrade its outlook for domestic demand andslightly raise warning ondownside risks to external demand.

One of the focal points of debate at the upcoming policy meeting will be the risk assessment and the degree to which rising uncertainties in overseas economies and financial conditions, including in Greece and China, have a negative impact on Japan's economy and inflation via trade, exchange rates, and commodity prices.

What is important for the BOJ when evaluating policy, however, is the size and sustainability of those impacts, and those will change depending on the policy response in the EU and China. 
"At this point, the BOJ's likely stance will be to monitor the policy response from each government (EU and China) and its effect", says Bank of America.

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