Brazilian Real in last six months fell 38% against the dollar. This year alone, depreciation is around 27%, showing the gain in momentum. Pain might not be over for real yet. Why the situation dire? For the first time in…
Brazilian Real in last six months fell 38% against the dollar. This year alone, depreciation is around 27%, showing the gain in momentum. Pain might not be over for real yet.
Why the situation dire?
For the first time in years Brazilian economy is expected to contract.
Yield curve is inverted showing further pain in near term.
Rise in public sector wages do not support the growth in GDP. Public sector wage grew more than 50% since 2004 compared to a GDP growth of 12.5%.
Since September 2014, Brazil's sovereign credit default swap (CDS) premium rose from just 2.1% to 3.75% as of now.
To add to the woe, political and social situation tensed up after thousands took to streets last Sunday to protest against current government and corruption at Petrobras, state run oil company.
Government might not be successful to implement the austerity.
Since September last year, price of orange juice and sugar have fallen close to 30% hurting the export. Current account deficit is reaching records in recent time.
Brazilian real is trading at 3.27 against dollar and next target could be somewhere around 4 against dollar.
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