Brexit Series: Key takeaways from Brexit betting odds

Earlier this week, United Kingdom’s Conservative Party elected its new leader Boris Johnson, who is now the UK’s next Prime Minister, replacing Theresa May. In a fiery speech after becoming the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, who had campaigned for Britain to exit the European Union, has vowed to move the UK out of the European Union on 31st October 2019, when the current extension to get a deal done expires. Mr. Prime Minister said that under his leadership, the UK government would both prepare to negotiate a better deal, where there would be no backstop and prepare to tackle a disorderly exit from the European Union without an agreement.

The Prime Minister stressed that while he prefers to exit with an agreement and would work to get one done, Britain needs to exit the European Union on 31st October even if there is no agreement, as not dong such would seriously undermine the British democracy if the government fails to honor a democratic mandate. 

Let’s see what the betting market is suggesting as Britain has a new Prime Minister, possibly with a new vision for Brexit,

• The betting market is pricing that there would be no second referendum with a 94 percent probability.
• The betting market is pricing only 50 percent chance that the UK would exit before the end of the year.
• The market is pricing only 30 percent chance of a no-deal Brexit even after the election of Boris Johnson, who campaigned for Brexit, unlike his predecessor.
• The market is pricing only 24 percent chance that Article 50 would be revoked and Britain would remain in the EU.