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Briferendum Aftermath Series: What kind of approach should you take while analyzing Brexit?

As a trader or investor, we are quite sure that you are aware of what needs to be done, still, the requirements are so essential that we feel it is worth repeating.

  • The most important thing is to have an open mind, especially while inferring conclusions, simply because this is an event if it takes place will be an unprecedented one. Both economic and analysts have been predicting what might happen but in reality, nobody knows. What will happen is only remains to be seen. Even European policymakers aren’t sure how the path will unfold. Rules are literally being written.
     
  • The second most vital thing is to put more stress on the news, rather than views. If possible the first hand one. For example, European Central Bank (ECB) chief Mario Draghi gave one speech but you may find different analysis of that same speech from different newswire providers. The variations are much wider in the case of political commentaries. Hence, it is vital that you focus on the news part and first make your own analogy before reading others.
     
  • The third and final ingredient is to get rid of the biases as much as possible. For example, biases like back calculations, mental math, the hind sight will finally lead to bad trading decisions. Those, who missed out on the sterling’s drop will be more prone to shorting the sterling well ahead of the right moment.
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