Latest polls, bets, which are coming out, all pointing to the fact that exit camp is gaining momentum. In some cases, either they are leading or they have been able to reduce their lag. This means, Britain is heading towards the most uncertain referendum in modern history, which may put the country in an uncharted territory of global economics and politics.

Online polls conducted by ICM and YouGov, last week, gave a clear lead of four to five percentage points to exit camp. Still about 8-10% people remain undecided, who can make a difference in the final outcome.

Market participants have pushed implied volatility in one month option to 22% yesterday, as they become more nervous about the outcome of the poll. Sterling is likely to remain volatile to polls and headlines. Moreover, as we move towards the referendum date, liquidity in sterling based pairs likely to worsen and make them vulnerable to big moves, in case large volume hits the market. Today, Sterling jumped as much as 1.5% or around 200 pips, without any macro data or news, suggesting a fat-finger trade in low liquidity environment. It traded as high as 1.467 against Dollar, before retracing back to 1.452 area.

According to the bookmaker, Betfair, odds are still in favor of stay but momentum is clearly shifting towards an exit. Exit odds have jumped from 19% from the end of May to close to 30%, as of now.