COP positive momentum may not last

The Colombian peso posted the best performance at the regional level yesterday and appreciated around 2% vs. the USD closing the day at USD-COP 2557. 

Oil prices are stabilizing at around $60 USD per barrel with this effect already being reflected in the Vasconia oil blend that is Colombia's main oil mix for export. 

"In addition to this, the central bank has explicitly stated that it should keep the O/N rate constant (at 4.5%) in the months to come thus preserving the highest carry among all the pesos in Latin America (vs. the MXN and CLP). In spite of these supportive factors, the strongly negative terms-of-trade shock derived from much lower oil prices in general terms cannot be ignored at the structural level, suggesting that this appreciation trend of late may not last long", according to Commerzbank.