Canadian international trade deficit likely to have widened in November

Canadian international trade data for the month of November is set to release tomorrow. According to a TD Economics research report, the international trade deficit is likely to have widened to CAD 2.8 billion in the month, owing to outsized fall in energy exports, as a sharp fall in crude oil prices is compounded by voluntary shut-ins throughout the oil sands.

Motor vehicle exports unwind part of the 6 percent rise in October, adding to a wide deficit, while nominal imports should see slight change after posting four falls in the past five months. Aircraft imports have scope to rebound on higher deliveries to Canadian airlines while imports of machinery & equipment would be monitored closely as a barometer for a rebound for the fourth quarter investment.

“The real trade balance is expected to post a more modest deterioration on lower commodity prices, allowing real exports to outperform the nominal decline, although the external sector should still be a drag on growth”, added TD Economics.

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