Canadian job growth likely eased in June, jobless rate to have stayed at 5.4 pct

Canadian employment data for the month of June is set to release this week. According to a TD Economics research report, the labor market is likely to have shifted into a lower gear with job growth of 5k in June, which might be the second weakest month since August 2018.

Nevertheless, details might be more uplifting than the headline print. Modest employment growth should be enough to keep the jobless rate on hold at a multi-decade low of 5.4 percent, and wage growth is poised to rise to 2.8 percent year-on-year due to a muted rise last June.

Base-effects are expected to be a considerable tailwind to wage growth in the coming months; wages for permanent workers dropped 0.03 percent sequentially on average from June-October 2018, which compares with an average rise of 0.45 percent sequentially in the last six months.

“Elsewhere, we also look for a modest rebound in private employment after the loss of 20k private sector jobs last month”, added TD Economics.

At 18:00 GMT the FxWirePro's Hourly Strength Index of Canadian Dollar was bearish at -81.45 while the FxWirePro's Hourly Strength Index of US Dollar was neutral at -25.06 more details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex