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Central Banks React: Coordinated Rate Cuts Signal Global Economic Caution

Joel Carrett/AAP

On December 11, 2024, the Bank of Canada (BoC) implemented a 50 basis point cut to its overnight interest rate, bringing it down to 3.25%. This reduction marks the second consecutive cut of this magnitude and the fifth overall reduction since June, totaling 175 basis points in cuts throughout 2024. The decision stems from concerns about a weakening economy and deteriorating labor market conditions, threatening to maintain the BoC's inflation target of 2%. Recent economic data indicated an excess supply and slower-than-expected growth, prompting the central bank to act decisively.

The BoC has hinted that while further cuts may be considered, future adjustments will likely be more cautious and gradual. They plan to evaluate future rate changes on a case-by-case basis, suggesting that any upcoming cuts might be smaller, possibly around 25 basis points. Following the announcement, the Canadian dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar, reflecting market confidence in the BoC's actions amidst ongoing economic challenges. Economists had largely anticipated this move, predicting additional, though more modest, cuts into 2025.

On the same day, December 12, 2024, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised markets with a significant 50 basis points cut to its key interest rate, lowering it from 1.0% to 0.5%. This is the largest reduction in nearly a decade and aims to address rising economic uncertainties and a slowdown in inflation, which had dropped to 0.7% as of November 2024. The SNB's decision was driven by increased uncertainty regarding the global economic outlook, including potential changes in U.S. economic policy and political instability in Europe. The bank projected moderate economic growth for Switzerland, forecasting only 1.0% growth for 2024 and 1.5% for 2025. Following the rate cut, the Swiss franc weakened against both the euro and the dollar by approximately 0.3%. While the rate cut was larger than expected—most analysts had anticipated a 25 basis points reduction—there are indications from the SNB that this may be one of the final cuts in the current cycle as the bank removed references to additional cuts in its policy outlook.

Additionally, on December 12, 2024, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a 25 basis points cut to its key interest rates, marking the fourth reduction of the year. The deposit facility rate was lowered to 3.00%, the main refinancing operations rate to 3.15%, and the marginal lending facility rate to 3.40%. This decision responds to persistent economic challenges in the Eurozone, including slowing growth and inflation trends. While disinflation is occurring, underlying inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments in certain sectors. The ECB projects that headline inflation will average 2.4% in 2024, declining to 2.1% in 2025, and further down to 1.9% in 2026 and 2027. The central bank emphasized a data-dependent approach for future monetary policy, indicating openness to further cuts if economic conditions require it. The announcement was well anticipated by market participants, who expect ongoing adjustments in the ECB's monetary policy in response to evolving economic conditions.

In summary, these recent rate cuts by the BoC, SNB, and ECB reflect a collective monetary easing response to economic uncertainties, weaker growth prospects, and inflation management challenges in their respective regions. Each central bank's actions highlight the need to support economic stability while navigating complex global economic dynamics.

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