Central banks of commodity exporting countries need to maintain their pace

The central banks of commodity exporting countries are in a good position when compared to the commodity importing G10 countries. The inflation rates are of two types, within the target like BoC, RBA, or only just below it like RBNZ, or like Norges even above it.

Their terms of trade helps them, which is not rising but declining due to oil price fall. The "imported inflation cannot be reached through high import prices, but also through falling export prices.

The exchange rate reactions likely seems to be the reason behind this reaction. AUD has fallen more than 22% vs its trade partners since 2013 spring, NOK fell around 21% in that period.

"The central banks mentioned above cannot react to the "normal" inflation rates with a normalisation of their monetary policy, as price developments are only "normal" because the central banks concerned accept the depreciation of the currencies concerned, or have even supported it", says Commerzbank in a research note.