China’s Inflation Rebounds as Producer Price Deflation Eases in October

China’s deflationary pressures showed signs of easing in October, with consumer prices returning to positive territory and producer price declines narrowing, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The producer price index (PPI) dropped 2.1% year-on-year, slightly better than the 2.2% fall forecast in a Reuters poll, marking a modest recovery from September’s 2.3% decline. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% compared to a year earlier, beating expectations of no change and ending a two-month decline.

NBS statistician Dong Lijuan attributed the improvement to stronger capacity management in key industries such as coal, photovoltaics, batteries, and automobiles, where price declines narrowed notably. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, climbed 1.2% year-on-year, reaching a 20-month high. Food prices, however, fell 2.9%, though this represented a smaller drop than September’s 4.4%.

Economists note that while these figures hint at stabilization, China’s economy continues to face deflationary headwinds. “Demand remains weak, but a rebound in CPI indicates supply-side policies are having an effect,” said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, cautioned that it is still “too early to conclude the deflation is over,” suggesting several more months of data are needed to confirm a sustained recovery.

Despite the uptick, China’s overall growth momentum remains fragile. The government has rolled out fiscal measures, including 500 billion yuan in new policy-based financial instruments and 200 billion yuan in special local government bonds, to bolster investment. Analysts expect China’s economy to meet its 5% growth target for 2025, though subdued demand and geopolitical tensions may limit a stronger rebound.