China's new urban jobs fell in H1 2015, unlikely to continue in H2

A slowdown is showed in the pace of China's new urban jobs creation in the latest quarterly employment report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). In H1 2015, new urban jobs fell by 190k to 7.18m vs 7.37m in the same period last year. 

NBS noted that a 1%-point growth in the tertiary and secondary industries creates about 1m and 500k jobs respectively. As such, the slower jobs growth probably stemmed from the secondary industry which rose 6.1% y/y in H1 2015 vs 7.4% in H1 2014. 

"However, given the correction in the equity market, this pace is unlikely in H2 2015. At the current pace, the government remains on track to meet its conservative target of 10m new urban jobs for 2015", says Commerzbank. 

However, in order to exceed 13mn jobs for the 3rd consecutive year, it would need to create at least 5.8mn jobs in H2 2015. Separately, NBS said it will report the employment figures on a monthly basis from next year. 

The latest tentative employment numbers paint a more cautious picture on growth compared to the headline GDP and the monthly industrial production and retail sales reports. Going forward, the pace of job creation could be a key determining factor on the extent and pace of stimulus in H2. 

"USD-CNY continues to hold steady around 6.2095", added Commerzbank.