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China's Q3 GDP Growth in Line with Expectations, Below Annual Target
According to data released on Friday, China’s economy grew 4.6% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2024. While this figure met market expectations, it marks a slight slowdown compared to the 4.7% growth in the previous quarter. Quarterly GDP growth came in at 0.9%, missing the projected 1%, reflecting continued challenges in key sectors.
Economic Growth Below Beijing’s 5% Annual Target
Year-to-date growth reached 4.8%, falling short of Beijing’s ambitious 5% annual target. Chinese policymakers have rolled out a series of economic stimulus measures over the past few weeks to address this shortfall. These efforts represent the government’s most concentrated attempt yet to boost growth in the face of ongoing challenges.
Major Economic Challenges: Deflation, Private Spending, and Property Market
China's economy has faced persistent issues, including a prolonged deflationary trend, weak private consumption, and a struggling property market. The property sector, in particular, has seen a continued downturn, impacting economic stability. Although Beijing has introduced targeted measures to support this critical industry, many investors remain cautious due to a lack of clear details on the scope and timing of the stimulus.
Industrial Production and Retail Sales Beat Expectations
Despite these obstacles, other sectors showed positive signs. September saw both industrial production and retail sales outperform expectations, helping to offset some of the negative economic impacts. Industrial production rose by 4.5%, while retail sales increased by 5.5%, both beating forecasts. The unemployment rate also fell to 5.1%, lower than the anticipated 5.3%, signaling a potential improvement in labor market conditions.
Stimulus Measures Aim to Stabilize Economy
To counteract the slowdown, China’s government has announced stimulus plans aimed at shoring up local government finances and providing targeted support for the property market. However, the lack of detailed timelines for implementation has left many market participants uncertain about the measures' immediate effects.
Uncertain Economic Outlook Amid Stimulus Efforts
While recent data indicates some positive trends, such as stronger retail sales and industrial output, China’s economic outlook remains mixed. The effectiveness of Beijing’s stimulus package in achieving its 5% GDP target is uncertain, as the country continues to grapple with structural issues in key industries.
