Growth of China’s exports, gauged in US dollars, is likely to have declined significantly to -1% y/y in April from March’s growth of 11.5% y/y, according to Societe Generale. This is due to fading of huge positive base effects. However, the likely contraction of April will be much better than the first quarter’s contraction of 3.4% y/y. Global demand still continues to recover very modestly and slowly.
Meanwhile, China’s imports are likely to have rebounded with the help of stronger commodity prices and recovery in domestic investment demand. The year-on-year contraction is expected to have further narrowed to 4%, noted Societe Generale. Import growth from Hong Kong is expected to have remained solid because of the over-invoicing issue, said Societe Generale.
