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Risk sentiment improved after Chinese data showed the official manufacturing PMI for September rose to 49.8 from 49.7 and the important new orders index increased to 50.2 from 49.7. The final version of the Caixin PMI also showed a slight upward revision to 47.2 from 47.0.
"We believe we are close to a cyclical bottom as a long range of stimulus measures and a recovery in housing should lead to a moderate recovery in Q4. A lot of weakness in China has already been priced into the market and a bottoming in Chinese data should support market sentiment", says Danske Bank.
FX markets are taking their cues from equity markets. The negative correlation between equity performance and EUR/USD is remarkable, supporting the view that the EUR is the safe-haven currency of today. The EUR has replaced the CHF and JPY as the no. 1 safehaven currency due to the eurozone's large current account surplus and the currency's role as the funding currency of choice.
"With risk appetite improving on the Chinese PMI but deteriorating on the US ISM, EUR/USD continues to respect the recent 1.10-1.15 range. The improving sentiment towards China is affecting the EM markets: on Wednesday, CNH traded at a premium to CNY for the first time since the devaluation in August. That is an important sign that, at least, FX sentiment towards the CNY is improving",added Danske Bank.
