Concerns about a U.S. recession continue to appear exaggerated, to grow 2.7 pct in 2019: Commerzbank

The US economy grew by 3.2 percent in the first quarter of this year, more than in the final quarter of 2018. Measured against the difficult environment (temporary shutdown of federal authorities, trade conflicts and global slowdown), the US economy performed very well.

However, more than half of the growth is attributable to lower imports and increased inventory build-up. Private consumption, on the other hand, was disappointing.

"We still expect the US economy to grow more slowly this year. After all, the impulse from the tax cuts is fading and the Fed's past rate hikes are likely to slow the economy with the usual time lag. In addition, more and more companies are reaching capacity limits. Due to the better than expected start to the year, our growth forecast for 2019 has been raised slightly to 2.7 percent (previously: 2.5 percent)," according to a recent research report from Commerzbank.

For 2020, growth of 2.0 percent (previously: 1.8 percent) is expected. Concerns about a US recession continue to appear exaggerated. The weakness in consumer spending in the first quarter is likely to be short-lived.

Against the backdrop of continued strong job creation, rising wages and an already relatively high savings rate, a prolonged soft patch in private consumption does not appear plausible anyway. Global growth is also expected to stabilise over the course of the year, the report added.