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Global crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile through the end of this year, following uncertainty over a production freeze by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Also, Russia’s vagueness over this issue has added to the oil price discrepancy.
The OPEC has endured low oil prices for far too long, with much damage already done on its fiscal space. That alone should coax the cartel to initiate a production cut. Global growth should accelerate into 2017 and support crude oil demand. That should give crude oil prices a welcomed boost into 2017, OCBC reported.
Further, changing fundamentals especially in the energy sector, have lifted crude oil futures of late, as market-watchers monitor the possible production deal to be made in the November OPEC meeting.
"Crude oil will push towards a rebalanced environment if a unified OPEC unanimously acts to effectively reduce oil production," OCBC commented in its report.
In addition, global growth is also expected to return to normalcy in 2017, thus extending support to crude oil demand, and hence, prices. Higher US oil production had already been seen earlier in June this year when crude oil prices rally above its USD50/bbl mark, before trending sideways till-date. More starkly perhaps, is the higher oil rig counts for the ninth consecutive week, reinforcing this upside risk in oil production.
According to the Energy Intelligence Group, global oil demand grew to 97.6 million barrels per day (MBPD) (+1.5 percent y/y) in September and thus narrowed the supply glut from 3.7mbpd seen earlier in January 2016, to the latest 1.6mbpd. The higher demand is led by strong Chinese oil imports, which rose to its highest in 5 months to 8.34 mbpd.
Meanwhile, the higher oil prices, despite the fragility seen in the OPEC cartel, suggests that market-watchers are betting on higher oil prices based solely on a short-term adjustment to crude oil production.
At 7:40GMT, the benchmark Brent crude oil futures was 1.05 percent up at 47.26, with an extremely intensified bullish momentum.
