Currencies are nervous ahead of the first US rate lift-off widely expected on 16 Dec. The weak tone in equities is reflected by the flight to safety into the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. USD/JPY is below 121.62, the level where their 50-day and 100-day moving averages have converged. The major support is located around 119, the rising trendline established since the start of Abenomics. 

Commodity-related currencies such as the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar are lower with oil and commodity prices. USD/CAD has broken above 1.3455, its high seen on 29 Sep, to 1.3754 last Friday, its highest close since May 2004. AUD/USD has been retreating after it hit 0.7382 on 4 Dec, the high seen on 12 Oct. Having fallen to 0.7186 last Friday, AUD/USD is still headed south towards a trendline support around 0.7075. An escalation in risk aversion will be reflected by AUD/JPY falling below its trendline support at 85.80. 

With US rates moving up at a time when trade and manufacturing activities are weak in emerging economies, Asia ex Japan (AXJ) currencies have resumed their depreciation. USD/SGD has risen back above 1.40 to 1.4125 last Friday, after its trendline support around 1.3910 held. For USD/SGD to resume its major uptrend, it would need to break above the trendline resistance around 1.4210. 

As for the AXJ currencies vulnerable to higher US rates and a stronger greenback, USD/IDR broke above its 100-day moving average on 10 Dec, and is now closing in on its psychological 14000 resistance. Closing at 13945 last Friday, USD/IDR has recovered half of what it lost in the first half of Oct, when it fell from 14730 to 13200. Having bounced off its support around its 100-day moving average (4.1916) on 4 Dec, USD/MYR has closed higher above 4.30 this morning, and looking to test its trendline resistance at 4.3525.