Currency snapshot (major pairs)

Dollar index trading at 94.43 (-0.11%)

Strength meter (today so far) – Euro +0.21%, Franc +0.14%, Yen +0.04%, GBP +0.07%

Strength meter (since last week) – Euro +0.33%, Franc -0.35%, Yen -0.45%, GBP +0.67%

EUR/USD –

Trading at 1.134

Trend meter –

• Long term – Buy, Medium term – Range/Buy, Short term – Buy

Support

• Long term – 1.08, Medium term – 1.115, Short term – 1.125   

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.2, Medium term – 1.17, Short term – 1.17

Economic release today –

• Euro Zone trade balance for March came at €22.3 billion.

Commentary –

• Euro trying to gain over base around 1.13 area. Likely to decline in the short run. Our longer term target for Euro to reach as high as 1.20 against Dollar.

GBP/USD –

Trading at 1.445

Trend meter –

• Long term – Buy, Medium term – Buy, Short term – Range/Sell

Support –

• Long term – 1.4, Medium term – 1.4, Short term – 1.427 

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.47, Medium term – 1.467, Short term – 1.467

Economic release today –

• HPI came at 9% y/y.
• RPI came at 1.3% y/y.
• PPI came at 0.5% y/y.
• CPI came at 0.3% y/y and 1.2% for core.

Commentary –

• Pound is best performer this week but gave up gains after reaching around 1.453 as inflation softened.

USD/JPY –                      

Trading at 109

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Range/ Sell, Short term – Sell

Support –

• Long term – 98.5, Medium term – 102.8, Short term – 105

Resistance –

• Long term – 121, Medium term – 115, Short term – 111.2

Economic release today –

• Japan’s GDP likely to be released at 23:50 GMT.

Commentary –

• Yen is worst performer of the week. Active call – Buy Yen @119.5 with stop loss around 123.8 and target at 114 and 110, 108.9 and 98.5 First three target reached, new target 90 added.

USD/CHF –                                                                                         

Trading at 0.977

Trend meter –

• Long term – Buy, Medium term – Range, Short term – Range/Sell

Support –

• Long term – 0.905, Medium term – 0.927, Short term – 0.95

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.037, Medium term – 1.01, Short term – 0.98

Economic release today –

• Producer and import prices rose 0.3% in April, down -2.4% from a year ago.

Commentary –

• Franc is down against Dollar this week, similar to Yen. We expect Franc to strengthen against Dollar to as high as 0.9 area in the medium term.