Currency snapshot (major pairs)

Dollar index trading at 97.20 (+0.07%)

Strength meter (today so far) – Euro +0.12%, Franc -0.15%, Yen -0.61%, GBP -0.31%

Strength meter (since last week) – Euro +0.21%, Franc -0.67%, Yen +0.52%, GBP -0.17%

EUR/USD –

Trading at 1.1

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Sell, Short term – Sell

Support

• Long term – 1.06, Medium term – 1.08, Short term – 1.09   

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.16, Medium term – 1.116, Short term – 1.116

Economic release today –

• M3 money supply grew 5 percent y/y in June.

Commentary –

• Euro is still struggling around 1.1, focus is on Fed today. Active call – Sell EUR/USD at 1.116 with stop loss at 1.15 and target at 1.01

GBP/USD –

Trading at 1.308

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Sell, Short term – Sell

Support –

• Long term – 1.2, Medium term – 1.27, Short term – 1.29 

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.39, Medium term – 1.35, Short term – 1.34

Economic release today –

• GDP grew 2.2 percent y/y in second quarter beating estimates.

Commentary –

• The pound is treading water around 1.31 awaiting further cue. We expect the pound to reach parity.

USD/JPY –                      

Trading at 105.5

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Range/ Sell, Short term – Sell

Support –

• Long term – 91, Medium term – 98, Short term – 100

Resistance –

• Long term – 111, Medium term – 107, Short term – 107

Economic release today –

• Leading economic index declined to 99.7 and coincident index declined to 109.9
• Corporate service prices will be released at 23:50 GMT.

Commentary –

• Yen lost ground as risk aversion failed to materialize and focus turned onto BoJ. Active call – Buy Yen @119.5 with stop loss around 123.8 and target at 114 and 110, 108.9 and 98.5. All targets reached, new target 90 added. Yen may retrace to 111 per dollar if BOJ intervenes.

USD/CHF –        

Trading at 0.993

Trend meter –

• Long term – Buy, Medium term – Range, Short term – Range/Sell

Support –

• Long term – 0.9, Medium term – 0.927, Short term – 0.95

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.037, Medium term – 1.01, Short term – 0.994

Economic release today –

• UBS consumption indicator rose to 1.34 in June from 1.24 in May.

Commentary –

• Franc is worse performer than the Euro. We expect Franc to strengthen against Dollar to as high as 0.86 area in the medium term.